Consumer Sentiment

September 13, 2019 The final estimate of consumer sentiment for September rose by a modest 2.2 points in September to 92.0 after having fallen 8.6 points in August .  Despite the drop the levels for consumer sentiment  in August and September are still quite lofty. ...

Small Business Optimism

September 10, 2019 .Small business optimism fell 1.6 points in August to 103.1 after having risen 1.4 points in July..  The August 2018  level of 108.8  broke the previous record high level of 108.0 set 35 years ago back in July 1983.  The current level of confidence...

The Forgotten 70%

September 6, 2019 The consensus view is that the tariffs imposed by President Trump have increased the risk of recession in 2020.  Even the Federal Reserve seems to buy into that scenario.  We continue to disagree with that conclusion for two reasons.  First, reduced...

Car and Truck Sales

September 3, 2019 Unit car and truck sales rose 0.7% in August to a 17.0 million paced after having declined 2.0% in July.    During the last year car sales have risen 0.7%.  Car sales have been basically flat for the past couple of years and should continue to be...