Producer Price Index

September 11, 2019 The Producer Price Index for final demand – intermediate demand  includes producer prices for goods, as well as prices for construction, services, government purchases, and exports and covers over 75% of domestic production. Producer prices...

Unemployment vs. Job Openings

September 10, 2019 The  Labor Department reported that job openings fell 0.4% in July to 7,217 thousand after declining 1.8% in June.  Job openings seem to be bouncing around from month to month at a very elevated level.  Indeed, there are far more job openings today...

The Forgotten 70%

September 6, 2019 The consensus view is that the tariffs imposed by President Trump have increased the risk of recession in 2020.  Even the Federal Reserve seems to buy into that scenario.  We continue to disagree with that conclusion for two reasons.  First, reduced...

Private Employment

September 6, 2019 .Private employment for August rose 96 thousand after having risen 131 thousand in July and 161 thousand in June.   A better reading of what is truly going on is typically represented by the  3-month moving average of private employment which is now...

Payroll Employment

September 6, 2019 .Private employment r rose 130 thousand in August after having risen 159 thousand in July and 178 thousand in June.   A better reading of what is truly going on is typically represented by the  3-month moving average of private employment which is...