by sslifer | Jun 13, 2023 | Inflation, NumberNomics Notes
June 13, 2023 Gasoline prices fell $0.03 in the week ending June 5 to $3.54 after having risen $0.04 in the previous week. In South Carolina gasoline prices tend to be about $0.25 below the national average or $3.29. The EIA currently expects gasoline prices...
by sslifer | Feb 24, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
February 24, 2023 The past few weeks have burst the soft landing bubble. First quarter GDP growth estimates have been rising steadily from 0.5% at the beginning of the year to 2.0-2.5% currently. All inflation measures were revised higher in the final few months of...
by sslifer | Dec 23, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes, The Year Ahead Outlook
December 23, 2022 A recession is coming sometime in 2023 or 2024. We do not expect it to arrive until the first half of 2024. Why so late? Several reasons. First, the real funds rate is likely to remain negative until the middle of 2023 which means it will have...
by sslifer | Sep 9, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
September 9, 2022 We do not talk about growth outside the U.S. too much because the trade sector is such a small piece of the GDP pie. Typically, developments in Europe and Asia have only a minor impact on U.S. GDP growth and inflation. But that is not the case...
by sslifer | Jun 17, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
June 17, 2022 While the Fed believes it can pull off a soft landing, the markets are convinced that a recession is coming. And they are probably right. But when? With core CPI inflation likely to be 5.2% at the end of next year, the 3.8% funds rate that the Fed...
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