by sslifer | May 19, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
May 19, 2023 The Conference Board’s index of leading indicators (LEI) has been falling steadily since December 2021. The index anticipates turning points in the business cycle by around 10 months. Based on this steep slide the Conference Board forecasts a recession...
by sslifer | Mar 10, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
March 10, 2023 This past week Silicon Valley Bank warned that it was having difficulty and needed to issue additional stock to counter losses on its holdings of securities. That announcement crushed bank stocks and dinged the overall market. This can happen when the...
by sslifer | Feb 3, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
February 3, 2023 The economy may be softening, but you get little support for such an argument from the January employment report which was unambiguously strong. That raises several questions. Will growth slow enough to bring down the inflation rate? Will...
by sslifer | Sep 2, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
September 2, 2022 The Fed will raise rates at its meeting later this month. Most likely is an increase of 0.75%. But whatever happens, interest rates will climb significantly higher in the months ahead. The Fed has told us that. Pay attention! It is tempting to...
by sslifer | Aug 5, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
August 5, 2022 GDP declined in the first two quarters of the year. Some economists suggest that the economy was in recession during that period of time or about to go into one. But many economic indicators tell us that was not the case. Employment, industrial...
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