The Forgotten 70%

September 6, 2019 The consensus view is that the tariffs imposed by President Trump have increased the risk of recession in 2020.  Even the Federal Reserve seems to buy into that scenario.  We continue to disagree with that conclusion for two reasons.  First, reduced...

Maintaining the Faith

April 5, 2019 The economy experienced a number of damaging shocks in the past six months as the stock market plunged in the fourth quarter followed by the protracted government shutdown.  As a result, GDP growth in the fourth quarter slipped to 2.2%.  We do not yet...