by sslifer | Sep 15, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
September 15, 2023 As data continue to flow in, third quarter GDP growth seems likely to be a solid 3.5%. But in October as student loan borrowers resume payments on their debt the pace of consumer spending is almost certain to slow. At the same time workers at the...
by sslifer | Jul 7, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
July 7, 2023 At midyear 2023 the economists who suggest that the economy will slip into recession in the second half of the year must be feeling nervous. The service sector of the economy rebounded in June. The employment report for June was solid with a 209...
by sslifer | Jun 16, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
June 16, 2023 We are beginning to wonder if the economy has a lot more momentum than is generally believed at the moment. Virtually every economist on the planet expects the U.S. economy to slip into recession later this year or early in 2024 because, surely, real...
by sslifer | Jun 9, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
June 9, 2023 Much has been written recently regarding the recent disquieting decline in productivity. The productivity drop suggests that firms are hanging onto more workers than they need. If demand does not soon accelerate, firms will eventually determine that...
by sslifer | May 19, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
May 19, 2023 The Conference Board’s index of leading indicators (LEI) has been falling steadily since December 2021. The index anticipates turning points in the business cycle by around 10 months. Based on this steep slide the Conference Board forecasts a recession...
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