by sslifer | Nov 30, 2018 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
November 30, 2018 Most economists believe that the economy is growing at a rate well in excess of its assumed potential growth path. That should translate into upward pressure on the inflation rate. The problem is, that is not happening. If the upswing in...
by sslifer | Nov 2, 2018 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
November 2, 2018 The market’s attention recently shifted to labor costs which have begun to accelerate. Most economists fear that rapidly rising wages will lead to a further pickup in inflation, force the Fed to quicken the pace of rate hikes, and eventually lead to...
by sslifer | May 4, 2018 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
May 4, 2018 The unemployment rate declined 0.2% in April to 3.9%. That is the lowest it has been since December 2000. Economists generally believe that the full employment threshold – the rate at which everyone who wants a job has one – is about 4.5%. Surely, the...
by sslifer | Apr 8, 2016 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 8, 2016 Many economists fret about the slow growth of average hourly earnings. It has been climbing at about a 2.0% pace versus about 3.5% prior to the recession, but three factors suggest wage growth is not only faster than it appears, it is more than...
by sslifer | Dec 14, 2010 | NumberNomics Notes, The Year Ahead Outlook
December 14, 2011 (Almost) As Good As It Gets This is the time of the year when economists reveal their expectations for growth in the upcoming year. Our best guess is that 2011 will look quite different from 2010 as the economy shifts into high gear. Specifically,...
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