by sslifer | Aug 23, 2024 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
August 23, 2024 This past week the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its preliminary estimate of the annual revision to the payroll employment data. It caused quite a stir. The BLS reported that in March 2024 there were 818 thousand fewer workers on the job than...
by sslifer | Aug 16, 2024 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
August 16, 2024 It looks increasingly likely that the market jitters earlier in the month were temporary and caused by a few weak data points combined with the unwinding of the Japanese yen carry trade being used to finance bond purchases in the U.S. and elsewhere. In...
by sslifer | Aug 9, 2024 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
August 9, 2024 Following the release of several soft data points highlighted by the June employment report, the market quickly concluded that a recession is imminent and the fixed income market priced in a full percentage point of Fed rate cuts by December. Given...
by sslifer | Aug 6, 2024 | Miscellaneous, NumberNomics Notes
August 6, 2024 The trade deficit narrowed by $1.9 billion in June to $73.1 billion after having widened by $0.5 billion in May t it has been gradually widening since the beginning of the year in response to the stronger dollar. Exports rose $3.9 billion or 1.5% in...
by sslifer | Aug 2, 2024 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
August 2, 2024 The Fed’s announcement that it intends to cut the funds rate in September was widely expected (although we thought the Fed would wait until December). However, the employment report for July revealed considerable labor market weakness —...
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