That Was Quick!

August 16, 2024 It looks increasingly likely that the market jitters earlier in the month were temporary and caused by a few weak data points combined with the unwinding of the Japanese yen carry trade being used to finance bond purchases in the U.S. and elsewhere. In...

Déjà Vu, All Over Again

August 9, 2024 Following the release of several soft data points highlighted by the June employment report, the market quickly concluded that a recession is imminent and the fixed income market priced in a full percentage point of Fed rate cuts by December.  Given...

Trade Deficit

August 6, 2024 The trade deficit narrowed by $1.9 billion in June to $73.1 billion after having widened by $0.5 billion in May  t it has been gradually widening since the beginning of the year in response to the stronger dollar. Exports rose $3.9 billion or 1.5% in...

How Fast?  How Far?

August 2, 2024 The Fed’s announcement that it intends to cut the funds rate in September was widely expected (although we thought the Fed would wait until December).  However, the employment report for July revealed considerable labor market  weakness  —...