by sslifer | Apr 26, 2024 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 26, 2024 The slower-than-expected 1.6% GDP growth rate in the first quarter and the faster-than-expected increase in the core personal consumption expenditures deflator of 3.7% was generally regarded as the worst of both worlds. That is not quite true. ...
by sslifer | Apr 26, 2024 | Forecasts, NumberNomics Notes
April 26, 2024 The economy seems to growing steadily at a 2.0-2.5% pace. The economy continues to create jobs and wages keep growing and consumers continue to spend As a result, we expect GDP growth of about 3.0% in the second quarter followed by 2.0-2.5% growth in...
by sslifer | Apr 26, 2024 | Consumer
April 26, 2024 Personal consumption expenditures jumped 0.8% in both February and March. The consumer is still willing to spend despite worries about inflation and the pace of Fed tightening. What we are really interested in is “real” or inflation-adjusted...
by sslifer | Apr 26, 2024 | Inflation, NumberNomics Notes
April 26, 2024 There are many different measures of inflation, but the one that the Federal Reserve considers to be most important is the personal consumption expenditures deflator, in particular the PCE deflator excluding the volatile food and energy components. The...
by sslifer | Apr 25, 2024 | Housing, NumberNomics Notes
April 25, 2024 Pending home sales rose 3.4% in March to 78.2 after rising 1.6% in February. The National Association of Realtors chief economist, Lawrence Yun said, “March’s Pending Home Sales Index – at 78.2 – marks the best performance in a year, but it...
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