Manage Your Fear

April 18, 2025 One can justify almost any forecast of the economic environment between now and yearend from recession with a big increase in the unemployment rate and a dramatic pickup in the inflation rate, to moderate growth with a slight pickup in inflation and a...

Housing Starts

April 17, 2025 Housing starts plunged by 11.4% in March to 1,324 thousand after having risen 9.8% in February after falling 10.8% in January after jumping 16.9% in December.  Clearly, starts have been exceptionally volatile in recent months, rising or falling by...

Initial Unemployment Claims

April 17, 2025 Initial unemployment claims declined 9  thousand in the week ending April 12 to 215 thousand after rising 5 thousand in the previous week.    There is no evidence that the labor market has been affected by layoffs thus far.  However, we know that some...

Homebuilder Confidence

April 16, 2025 Homebuilder confidence rose 1 point in April to 40 after  having declined 3 points in March.  Builders are worried about the imposition of tariffs, still high mortgage rates, and the cost of materials.  Keep in mind that the breakeven point for this...

Industrial Production

April 16, 2025 Industrial production for March declined 0.3% after having jumped 0.8% in February.  In the past year industrial production has risen 1.3%. Breaking industrial production down into its three basic categories — manufacturing, mining, and...