by sslifer | Apr 3, 2020 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 3, 2020 The employment report for March showed a much larger job loss than had been expected as payroll employment declined 701 thousand. However, the bulk of the impact lies ahead. For what it is worth, we expect payroll employment to shrink by 5 million...
by sslifer | Apr 3, 2020 | Forecasts, NumberNomics Notes
April 3, 2020 Given the government’s response to the corona virus, the economy has stopped dead in its tracks. It started to fall precipitously in March. However, January and February were very strong months for the economy. As a result, we expect Q1 GDP...
by sslifer | Apr 3, 2020 | NumberNomics Notes, Purchasing Managers Index
April 3, 2020 The Institute for Supply Management not only publishes an index of manufacturing activity each month, they publish two days later a survey of non-manufacturing firms — which largely consists of services. The business activity index fell 9.8 points...
by sslifer | Apr 3, 2020 | Employment, NumberNomics Notes
April 3, 2020 Private employment declined 713 thousand in March after having risen 242 thousand in March. Given the sharp drop in employment in that month, the National Bureau of Economic Research will probably conclude that the expansion ended in February 2020 and...
by sslifer | Apr 3, 2020 | Employment, NumberNomics Notes
April 3, 2020 Payroll employment declined 701 thousand in March after having risen 275 thousand in March. Given the sharp drop in employment in that month, the National Bureau of Economic Research will probably conclude that the expansion ended in February 2020 and...
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