July 16 2021
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The preliminary estimate of consumer sentiment for July fell 4.7 points to 80.8 after rising rose 2.6 points in June.
Surveys of Consumers Chief Economist Richard Curtin said, “Consumers’ complaints about rising prices on homes, vehicles, and household durables has reached an all-time record. However, purchase rates have benefitted from record increases in accumulated savings and reserve funds.”
We expect sentiment to climb in the months ahead as vaccines continue to be distributed at a moderate pace. As the same time economic growth is surging and monthly job gains are accelerating as the economy continues to re-open.. With the savings rate at 12,4% the consumer is flush with available cash to spend.
We expect 9.0% GDP growth in Q2. We are also looking for 8.0% GDP growth in 2021.
Consumer expectations for six months from now fell from 83.5 to 78.6..
Consumers’ assessment of current conditions fell from 88.6 to 84.5.
Stephen Slifer
NumberNomics
Charleston, SC
Going forward to the next reporting point will consumers focus on President Trump’s positive commentary for “Negative Interest Rates” and “Refinancing the US debt”
Since a lot of folks have savings accounts one would think :negative interest rates” would create negative consumer sentiment
Most people associate “refinancing” with financial difficulties
I wonder if that will have a negative on consumer sentiment
HI Allen,
Good question. But, at least in my mind, it is a moot point here in the U.S. I don’t think we will ever see negative rates but, then again, some of these other countries around the globe never thought they would get there either. If we should get to the point where negative rates become possible let’s keep an eye on confidence as you suggest. The soonest that might occur would be in the midst of the next downturn — whenever that is.
Steve