by sslifer | Aug 3, 2020 | NumberNomics Notes, Purchasing Managers Index
August 3, 2020 The Institute for Supply Management’s index of conditions in the manufacturing sector rose 1.6 points in July to 54.2 after jumping 9.5 points in June and having climbed by 1.6 points in May. This is the highest level for this index since March of last...
by sslifer | Jul 31, 2020 | Consumer, NumberNomics Notes
July 31, 2020 The final estimate of consumer sentiment for July fell 5.6 points in July 72.5. That compares to an initial reading of 73.2. Thus, sentiment appears to have declined somewhat in the second half of the month as the more rapid pace of spread of the...
by sslifer | Jul 31, 2020 | Inflation, NumberNomics Notes
July 31, 2020 The employment cost index for civilian workers climbed at a 2.0% rate in the second quarter after having risen at a 3.2% pace in the first quarter. Over the course of the past year it has risen 2.7%. With the unemployment rate having climbed to 14.7%...
by sslifer | Jul 31, 2020 | Consumer
July 31, 2020 Personal consumption expenditures rose 5.6% in June after having risen 8.5% in May after having plunged by 12.9% in April after having dropped by 6.7% in March. What we are really interested in is consumption spending in real terms (i.e., after...
by sslifer | Jul 30, 2020 | GDP, NumberNomics Notes
July 30, 2020 The preliminary estimate of second quarter GDP growth came in a -32.9% compared to a first quarter drop of 5.0%. That was roughly in line with what had been expected. But that is history and what we are really interested in is what happens next. Given...
by sslifer | Jul 30, 2020 | GDP, NumberNomics Notes
July 30, 2020 When the economy is slowing down, firms will accumulate unwanted inventories. Those inventories still show up in GDP, but they are unsold. Hence, GDP will be biased upwards. Similarly, in good times businesses will reduce inventory levels to satisfy...
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