November 27, 2019
It is important to remember that final sales is a measure of how many domestically produced goods are sold each quarter. But we also sell goods overseas — our exports. And we purchase goods from other countries — our imports.
In the never-ending process of analyzing the GDP data, there is yet another series called “final sales to domestic purchasers” which measures how much U.S. residents are actually spending. It starts with final sales, but then subtracts exports (which represents how much foreigners are buying from the U.S.) and adds imports (which represents how much U.S. residents are spending on imports). The end result is a measure of sales by domestic purchasers.
Final sales to domestic purchasers which excludes both the change in inventories and trade rose by 2.0% in the third quarter after having risen 3.6% in the second quarter. In the third quarter the deficit for net exports widened by $7.6 billion from $980.7 billion to $988.3 billion. In that quarter exports rose 0.9% while imports rose 1.5%. Given that final sales to domestic purchasers rose 2.0% while final sales rose 2.0%, it is clear that the trade component had no impact on GDP growth in the third quarter. Over the past year this series has risen at a 2.2% pace.
Going forward the stock market should continue to climb which will boost net worth. The consumer is confident. Short-term Interest rates have declined 0.75% since June. The economy is creating a reasonable number of new jobs. The unemployment rate is steady at a 50-year low. Income is rising. Furthermore, corporations are making steady profits.
The economy should expand at a 2.4% pace in both 2019 and 2020 after rising 2.5% last year.