Fed Policy is Misguided

October 11, 2014 The Federal Reserve is pleased that inflation is closing in on its 2.0% target. But what exactly is inflation? It is the change in prices in the past twelve months. While prices in the past year have risen slowly, they skyrocketed in prior years. As a...

Initial Unemployment Claims

October 10, 2024 Initial unemployment claims jumped 33 thousand in the week ending October 5  to 258 thousand after climbing 6 thousand in the previous week.   This series has risen slightly in the past three months.  The surprising increase in the most recent week...

Consumer Price Index

October 10, 2024 The CPI rose 0.2% in September which is the third consecutive month with a 0.2% increase. The year-over-year increase is currently 2.4%.  We now expect the CPI to increase 2.6% in 2024. Food prices rose 0.4% in September after climbing 0.1% in...

Small Business Optimism

October 8, 2024 . Small business optimism rose 0.3 point in September to 91.5 after declining 2.5 points in August.  The level is well below the 40-year average so-called breakeven point for this series which is 98.0. NFIB Chief Economist William Dunkelberg said,...