by sslifer | Apr 10, 2026 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 10, 2026 On Tuesday Trump said that “a whole civilization will die tomorrow” if Iran failed to meet his deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. A day later he announced a 14-day ceasefire. Huh? What does he really want? War? Or peace? While those two...
by sslifer | Apr 10, 2026 | Forecasts, NumberNomics Notes
April 10, 2026 The economy expanded at a 0.5% GDP growth in the fourth quarter and we expect a 2.0% growth rate in the first quarter of this year and 2.5% GDP growth for the year as a whole. Given the GDP forecast above, in 2026 we expect the unemployment rate to...
by sslifer | Apr 10, 2026 | Inflation, NumberNomics Notes
April 10, 2026 The CPI jumped 0.9% in March as oil prices surged after having risen 0.3% in February.. The year-over-year increase is 3.3%. We expect the overall CPI to increase 3.8% in 2026 as higher oil prices work their way through the economy. Food prices were...
by sslifer | Apr 9, 2026 | GDP, NumberNomics Notes
April 9, 2026 The final estimate of fourth quarter GDP rose 0.5% which compares to the preliminary estimate of 1.4% and the revised estimate of 0.7%. GDP rose 4.4%in the third quarter. Much of the shortfall in fourth quarter growth was attributable to the...
by sslifer | Apr 9, 2026 | GDP, NumberNomics Notes
April 9, 2026 When the economy is slowing down, firms will accumulate unwanted inventories. Those inventories still show up in GDP, but they are unsold. Hence, GDP will be biased upwards. Similarly, in good times businesses will reduce inventory levels to satisfy...
by sslifer | Apr 9, 2026 | GDP, NumberNomics Notes
April 9, 2026 It is important to remember that final sales is a measure of how many domestically produced goods are sold each quarter. But we also sell goods overseas — our exports. And we purchase goods from other countries — our imports. In the...
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