by sslifer | Sep 22, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
September 22, 2023 This past week the Federal Reserve left the funds rate unchanged at 5.5%, which is exactly what was expected. While the Fed may not have raised the funds rate, the bond market took matters into its own hands and significantly raised every other...
by sslifer | Sep 21, 2023 | Housing, NumberNomics Notes
September 21, 2023 . Existing home sales declined 0.7% in July to 4,040 thousand after falling 2.2% in July. Home sales are being curtailed by limited supply and an unwillingness of current homeowners to put their homes on the market because they would be forced to...
by sslifer | Sep 21, 2023 | Employment, NumberNomics Notes
September 14, 2023 Initial unemployment claims fell 20 thousand in the week ending September 16 to 201 thousand after rising 4 thousand in the previous week. Thus far, in the face of rising interest rates and the fear of a recession, employers are reluctant to lay...
by sslifer | Sep 19, 2023 | Housing, NumberNomics Notes
September 19, 2023 Housing starts plunged by 11.3% in August to 1,283 thousand after having risen 2.0% in July. But given the sharp rise in building permits (see below) it is clear that starts will not remain at this depressed level for long. Starts tend to be one...
by sslifer | Sep 18, 2023 | Housing, NumberNomics Notes
September 18, 2023 Homebuilder confidence fell 5 points in September to 45 after having declined 6 points in August. This series hit bottom in December 2022 at 31. Rising mortgage rates which have climbed to the 7.2% mark has spooked builders. NAHB Chairman Alicia...
by sslifer | Sep 15, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
September 15, 2023 As data continue to flow in, third quarter GDP growth seems likely to be a solid 3.5%. But in October as student loan borrowers resume payments on their debt the pace of consumer spending is almost certain to slow. At the same time workers at the...
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