by sslifer | Aug 16, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
August 16, 2019 Both the markets and Fed officials continue to expect significant economic weakness or even a recession. The stock market has fallen 5.0% from its record level set less than a month ago. The yield curve has inverted slightly. A Wall Street Journal...
by sslifer | Aug 16, 2019 | Forecasts, NumberNomics Notes
August 16, 2019 The preliminary estimate of second quarter GDP growth came in at 2.1% after having risen 3.1% in the first quarter. For the year as a whole we anticipate 2.5.% GDP growth after having risen 2.5% in 2018. . Consumer spending jumped 4.3% in the second...
by sslifer | Aug 16, 2019 | Consumer, NumberNomics Notes
August 16, 2019 The initial estimate of consumer sentiment for August fell 6.3. points to 92.1 after having risen 0.2 point in July . Even with the August drop sentiment remains at a lofty level. It has fluctuated in a range from 90.0-100.0 for the past five years....
by sslifer | Aug 16, 2019 | Housing, NumberNomics Notes
August 16, 2019 Housing starts fell 4.0% in July to 1,191 thousand after having declined 1.8% in June and 0.5% in May. Because these data are particularly volatile on a month-to-month basis, it is best to look at a 3-month moving average of starts (which is the...
by sslifer | Aug 15, 2019 | Housing, NumberNomics Notes
August 15, 2019 .Homebuilder confidence rose 1 point in August to 66 after having risen 1 point in July. A level of 66 is indicative of a solid level of confidence going forward although, admittedly, it is below readings of 70-75 at this time last year. NAHB...
by sslifer | Aug 15, 2019 | Industrial Production, NumberNomics Notes
August 15, 2019 Industrial production declined 0.2% in July after having risen 0.2% in both May and June. During the past year industrial production has risen 0.5%, but one year ago it was climbing at a 3.9% pace. Breaking industrial production down into its three...
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