.April 24, 2025

Initial unemployment claims rose 6  thousand in the week ending April 19 to 222 thousand after falling 8 thousand in the previous week.    There is no evidence that the labor market has been affected by layoffs thus far.  However, we know that some government workers are being fired.  Keep in mind that federal government employment is only 2.0% of total employment so the impact for the economy as a whole should be fairly small. This series has changed very little in the past year.  The 4-week average of claims was 210 thousand at the end of April 2024  versus 220 thousand today.

The number of people receiving unemployment benefits fell 37 thousand.in the week ending April 12 to 1,841 thousand after rising 34 thousand in the previous week. This series has changed very little in recent months.

Given the small decline in the number of people receiving unemployment benefits, the insured unemployment rate was unchanged in the most recent week at 1.2% after being unchanged in the previous week.  Before the shutdown started in 2020 it was at 1.2% so it is still at its pre-pandemic level. .

The insured unemployment rate tracks closely the unemployment rate.   Given the level of the insured unemployment rate, we expect the unemployment rate to be unchanged in April at 4.2%.  We also expect payroll employment to increase 150 thousand.  These numbers will be released on May 2.

We expect GDP growth of 0.5% in the first quarter and 2.0% in 2025.

Stephen Slifer

NumberNomics

Charleston, SC