The Year Ahead – 2025
December 6, 2024 The 2025 outlook seems particularly bright characterized by 3.0% GDP growth, the unemployment rate steady at the 4.0% mark, additional slowing in the core inflation rate to 2.3% , and a further reduction in the funds rate from 4.75% today to 3.75%...
GDP, Inflation, and Interest Rate Forecasts
December 6, 2024 GDP climbed by 2.8% in the third quarter and we expect 2.5% growth in the fourth quarter. . Given the GDP forecast above, we expect the unemployment rate to remain at 4.2% at the end of the year and then inch lower to 4.0% by the end of 2025. The...
Consumer Sentiment
December 6, 2024 The preliminary estimate of consumer sentiment for December rose 2.2 points to 74.0 which is its highest level since April. This is the fifth consecutive month that sentiment has risen. Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu said, "Consumer...
Payroll Employment
December 6, 2024 Payroll employment rebounded in November by 227 thousand after having risen just 36 thousand in October. The September and October data were revised upwards by a total of 56 thousand. In the past three months the average increase has been 173...
Private Employment
December 6, 2024 Private sector employment rebounded in November by 194 thousand after having declined 2 thousand in October. The September and October data were revised upwards by a total of 56 thousand. In the past three months the average increase has been...
Unemployment Rate
December 6, 2024 The unemployment rate rose 0.1% in November to 4.2% after having been unchanged in October. In November the labor force fell 193 thousand.. Employment declined 355 thousand. As a result, the number of unemployed workers rose by 161 thousand and...
Nonfarm Workweek
December 6, 2024 In any given month employers can boost output by either additional hiring workers or by lengthening the number of hours that their employees work. Payroll employment jumped by 227 thousand in November. At the same time the nonfarm workweek rose...
Average Hourly Earnings
December 6, 2024 Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% in November to $35.61 after increasing 0.4% in October. Earnings growth has slowed from 4.3% at the end of last year to 4.0% currently. The earlier decline in earnings appears to reflect the flood of workers...
Average Duration of Unemployment
December 6, 2024 The average duration of unemployment rose 0.8 week in November to 23.7 weeks after climbing 0.3 week in October, 0.6 week in September, and 0.4 week in August. It appears that unemployment workers are having a somewhat more difficult time becoming...
Initial Unemployment Claims
December 5, 2024 Initial unemployment claims rose 9 thousand in the week ending November 30 to 224 thousand after being unchanged in the previous week. This series has risen slightly in the past six months. The 4-week average of claims was 210 thousand at the...
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