The Inflation Outlook Is About to Get Better
November 13, 2026 The CPI for October surprised on the upside and the 12-mointh increases for both the overall index and the core rate continued to climb. That is about to change because of the recent, dramatic drop in energy prices. Crude oil prices have fallen...
Producer Price Index
November 13, 2026 . The Producer Price Index for final demand includes producer prices for goods, as well as prices for construction, services, government purchases, and exports and covers over 75% of domestic production. Producer prices for final demand rose 0.3%...
Existing Home Sales
November 12, 2026 . Existing home sales fell 5.5% in October to 3,750 thousand after have gained 1.0% in September. That is the slowest pace of existing home sales since 2010. The recent increase in mortgage rates to 7.3% apparently reduced sales significantly....
Initial Unemployment Claims
November 12, 2026 Initial unemployment claims rose 9 thousand in the week ending November 7 to 200 thousand after having declined 4 thousand in the previous week. The number of people receiving unemployment benefits fell 20 thousand in the week ending October 31 to...
Consumer Price Index
November 10, 2026 The CPI rose 0.4% in October after climbing 0.6% in September and 0.4% in August. The year-over-year increase is now 3.9%. We expect the overall CPI to increase 3.6% in 2026 as the war with Iran has boosted oil prices. Looking ahead we expect...
The Election Results Should be Good for the Economy
November 6, 2026 Two things happened this past week. The election on Tuesday, followed by wild swings in stock prices on the final three days of the week. So is this good or bad? On balance, we think it is good. The stock market surged on Wednesday, got clobbered...
GDP, Inflation, and Interest Rate Forecasts
November 6, 2026 We expect a 2.8% GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of this year which would give us 2.7% growth for the year as a whole. We expect 2.6% GDP growth in 2027. Given the GDP forecast above, we expect the unemployment rate to be steady at 4.1% at...
Payroll Employment
November 6, 2026 . .Payroll employment rose by 165 thousand in October after having gained 60 thousand in September after climbing by 186 thousand in August. In the past three months payroll employment has risen on average by 137 thousand per month .The labor...
Private Employment
November 6, 2026 . Private sector employment rose by 159 thousand in October after having gained 78 thousand in September after climbing by 142 thousand in August. In the past three months payroll employment has risen on average by 126 thousand per month. The...
Unemployment Rate
November 6, 2026 OK The unemployment rate fell 0.1% in October to 4.1% after having risen 0.1% in September. The labor force jumped by 421 thousand in October while employment rose by 463 thousand. As a result, the number of unemployed workers fell by 41 thousand...
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