Consumer Price Index
July 15, 2025 The CPI rose 0.3% in June after gaining 0.1% in May The year-over-year increase is 2.7%. We now expect the overall CPI to increase 2.9% in 2025. Food prices rose 0.3% in both May and June. In the past year food prices have risen 2.9%. Economists...
Housing Market Is Poised to Improve
July 11, 2025 New and existing home sales plunged in 2022. We all know why. Home prices surged because of the shortage of building materials in the wake of the 2020 recession. At the same time the Fed began to raise the funds rate in an effort to bring...
Initial Unemployment Claims
July 10, 2025 Initial unemployment claims fell 5 thousand in the week ending July 5 to 227 thousand after having declined 5 thousand in the previous week. The labor market has hardly been affected by layoffs thus far. However, we know that some government...
Small Business Optimism
July 8, 2025 . Small business optimism declined 0.2 point in June to 98.6 after having risen 3.0 points in May. The index level also remains close to the 40-year average so-called breakeven point for this series which is 98.0. Note also that small business...
Trade Deficit
July 5 2025 The trade deficit widened by $11.3 billion in May to $71.5 billion after having narrowed by $78.1 billion in April. Firms raced to import goods in the first three months of the year prior to the imposition of tariffs, but in April and May the deficit...
Crosscurrents Galore
July 4, 2025 At first blush the June employment report appeared stronger than expected. Payroll employment rose 147 thousand which was considerably larger than the 100 thousand gain that was expected. The unemployment rate declined 0.1% to 4.1% rather than rising...
GDP, Inflation, and Interest Rate Forecasts
July 4, 2025 The world has turned topsy-turvy as tariffs are imposed, then postponed and, perhaps, reimposed. A war breaks out between Israel and Iran. The U.S. joins in by bombing Iran. Nobody knows what to expect. We are all reacting to the latest events and...
Purchasing Managers Index — Nonmanufacturing
July 3 2025 The Institute for Supply Management not only publishes an index of manufacturing activity each month, they publish two days later a survey of service sector firms. The business activity index jumped 4.2 points in June to 54.2 after having declined 3.7...
Payroll Employment
July 3, 2025 . .Payroll employment climbed by 147 thousand in June after gaining 144 thousand in May. The job gain was higher than market expectations which were for an increase of 100 thousand. In the past three months payroll...
Private Employment
July 3, 2025 . Private sector employment climbed by 74 thousand in June after gaining 137 thousand in May. The job gain was higher than market expectations which were for an increase of 100 thousand. In the past three months private sector employment has risen on...
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