Solving the Wrong Problem

September 13, 2019 The European Central Bank provided a surprise dose of monetary stimulus this past week.  Not only did it cut interest rates, it announced a new bond-buying program designed to get the economy going.   However, policy makers in Europe and the U.S....

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GDP, Inflation, and Interest Rate Forecasts

September 13, 2019 The preliminary estimate of second quarter GDP growth came in at 2.1% after  having risen 3.1% in the first quarter.  For the year as a whole we anticipate 2.5.% GDP growth after having risen 2.5% in 2018.  . Consumer spending jumped 4.3% in the...

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The Forgotten 70%

September 6, 2019 The consensus view is that the tariffs imposed by President Trump have increased the risk of recession in 2020.  Even the Federal Reserve seems to buy into that scenario.  We continue to disagree with that conclusion for two reasons.  First,...

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