The Consumer Keeps Spending
September 13, 2024 One of the mysteries of the current expansion has been the contrast between consumer confidence – which is terrible – and consumer spending – which is not. All of the various consumer confidence surveys are close to the low point reached in the...
Producer Price Index
September 12, 2024 The Producer Price Index for final demand includes producer prices for goods, as well as prices for construction, services, government purchases, and exports and covers over 75% of domestic production. Producer prices for final demand rose 0.2%...
Initial Unemployment Claims
September 12, 2024 Initial unemployment claims rose 2 thousand in the week ending September 7 to 230 thousand after declining 4 thousand in the previous week. This series has risen slightly in the past three months. The number of people receiving unemployment...
Consumer Price Index
September 11, 2024 The CPI rose 0.2% in August after climbing 0.2% in July. The year-over-year increase is currently 2.6%. We now expect the CPI to increase 2.7% in 2024. Food prices rose 0.1% in August after gaining 0.2% in both July. In the past year food...
Small Business Optimism
September 10, 2024 . Small business optimism declined 2.5 points in August to 91.2 which completely erased the 2.2 point increase in July. The level is well below the 40-year average so-called breakeven point for this series which is 98.0. NFIB Chief Economist...
Car and Truck Sales
September 9, 2024 Unit car and truck sales declined 4.5% in August to a 15.131 million pace after having jumped 4.4% in July. Car sales seem to be plodding along at roughly the same pace as they have throughout the past year in a range from 15.0-15.5 million. We...
The Fed Joins the Party
September 6, 2024 The employment report for August was the icing on the cake. The labor market continues to cool. The Fed is going to lower the funds rate at its FOMC gathering on September 18. It will most likely be a 0.25% cut to the 5.0-5.25% range. But some...
Payroll Employment
September 6, 2024 Payroll employment for August rose 142 thousand after climbing 89 thousand in July and 118 thousand in June. In the past three months the average increase has been 116 thousand. The market had expected an increase in payroll employment for...
Private Employment
September 6, 2024 Private sector employment for August rose 118 thousand after climbing 74 thousand in July and 97 thousand in June. In the past three months the average increase has been 96 thousand. The market had expected an increase in private employment for...
Unemployment Rate
September 6, 2024 The unemployment rate fell 0.1% in August to 4.2% after having risen 0.2% in July, 0.1% in June, and 0.1% in May. In August the labor force rose by 120 thousand.. Employment increased 168 thousand. As a result, the number of unemployed workers...
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