The War Can Change the Outlook. Will It?
March 6, 2026 War in the Mideast is spreading and nobody can confidently predict what happens next. Oil prices have surged. The stock market is in retreat. Bond yields have surged. This has to weaken everybody’s outlook for the economy in the months ahead. But by...
Payroll Employment
March 6, 2026 . .Payroll employment declined by 92 thousand in February after having climbed by 126 thousand in January. In the past three months payroll employment has risen on average by 3 thousand per month While the data seemingly continue to weaken, it is...
Private Employment
March 6, 2026 . Private sectoremployment declined by 86 thousand in February after having climbed by 124 thousand in January. In the past three months payroll employment has risen on average by 18 thousand per month While the data seemingly continue to weaken,...
Nonfarm Workweek
March 6, 2026 In any given month employers can boost output by either additional hiring workers or by lengthening the number of hours that their employees work. Payroll employment declined by 92 thousand in February. The nonfarm workweek was unchanged in February...
Average Hourly Earnings
Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% in Feruary to $37.32 after having risen 0.4% in January, Earnings growth in the past year has been 3.8%. While nominal earnings have risen 3.8% in the past year, inflation has risen by 2.6% so real or inflation-adjusted earnings...
Retail Sales
March 6, 2026 Retail sales declined 0.2% in January after having been unchanged in December. In the past year retail sales have risen 3.1%. The January drop was caused largely by the bitter cold, snowy, and icy condidtions that prevailed in most parts of the...
Nonfarm Productivity
March 5, 2026 Non-farm productivity rose 2.8% in the fourth quarter after gaining 5.2% in the third quarter The third quarter growth rate consisted of a 2.6% increase in output combined with a 0.2% decline in hours worked. Hence, a 2.8% increase in productivity...
Unit Labor Costs
March 5, 2026 Unit labor costs might be a term that is not familiar to you. Unit labor costs represent the increase in compensation adjusted for the gains in productivity. You might think that if labor costs are rising that would put upward pressure on...
Hourly Compensation
March 5, 2026 The Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated that hourly compensation rose 5,7% in the fourth quarter afterclimbing 3.3% in the third quarter In the past year compensation has risen 4.1%. Growth in hourly compensation is a good thing, but that increase...
Initial Unemployment Claims
March 5, 2026 Initial unemployment claims were unchanged at 213 thousand in the week ending February 28 after having risen 5 thousand in the previous week. The number of people receiving unemployment benefits rose 46 thousand in the week ending February 21 to 1,868...
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