On the Rebound

May 16, 2025 It appears that Trump’s recent tariff relief will continue for some time to come.  While  the reprieve is only guaranteed for 90 days, it is likely that upon expiration of the 90-day period the lower tariffs will be extended until such time as a...

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Consumer Sentiment

May 16, 2025 The preliminary estimate of consumer sentiment for May fell 1.4 points to 50.8 after having declined 4.8 points in April.  This is the fifth consecutive decline in sentiment.  The May level is the lowest since June 2022. Surveys of Consumers Director...

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Housing Starts

May 16, 2025 Housing starts rose 1.6% in April to 1,361 thousand after having plunged by 10.1% in March.  Clearly, starts have been exceptionally volatile in recent months, rising or falling by double-digit amounts almost every month.  This reflects weather...

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Homebuilder Confidence

May 15, 2025 Homebuilder confidence dropped 6 points in May to 34 after having risen 1 point in April.  Builders are worried about the imposition of tariffs, still high mortgage rates, and the cost of materials.  Keep in mind that the breakeven point for this...

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Industrial Production

April 16, 2025 Industrial production for April was unchanged after having fallen 0.3 in March.  In the past year industrial production has risen 1.5%. Breaking industrial production down into its three basic categories -- manufacturing, mining, and utilities. ...

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Producer Price Index

May 15, 2025 The Producer Price Index for final demand  includes producer prices for goods, as well as prices for construction, services, government purchases, and exports and covers over 75% of domestic production. Producer prices for final demand declined 0.5% in...

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Initial Unemployment Claims

May 15, 2025 Initial unemployment claims were unchanged in the week ending May 10 at 229 thousand after declining 12 thousand in the previous week.    There is no evidence that the labor market has been affected by layoffs thus far.  However, we know that some...

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Retail Sales

May 15, 2025             Retail sales rose 0.1% in April after having jumped 1.7% in March.   In the past year retail sales have risen 5.2%  Some of the dramatic increase in sales in March and continuing into April could be a rebound...

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Small Business Optimism

May 13, 2025 . Small business optimism fell 1.6 points in April to 95.8 after having declined 3.3 points in March to 97.4 after falling 2.1 points in February to 100.7 after having declined 2.3 points in January.  The media focus seems to be on the fact that the...

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Consumer Price Index

May 13, 2025 The CPI rose 0.2% in April after having declined 0.1% in March.. The year-over-year increase is 2.3%.  We now expect the overall CPI to increase 3.1% in 2025. Food prices declined 0.1% in April after having climbed 0.4% in March.  In the past year food...

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