The Budget Deficit Remains Enormous (And Ignored)
July 10, 2026 We have written about the war and oil prices, inflation and the Fed for weeks. Time to switch gears and take a look at the budget deficit for the next decade. Both the budget deficit and Treasury debt outstanding as a percent of GDP are already at...
GDP, Inflation, and Interest Rate Forecasts
July 10, 2026 The economy expanded at a 2.1% pace in the first quarter and we expect a 1.8% growth rate in the second quarter of this year and 2.2% GDP growth for the year as a whole. Given the GDP forecast above, in 2026 we expect the unemployment rate to be...
Existing Home Sales
July 9, 2026 . Existing home sales declined 2.4% in June to 4,090 thousand after having risen 3.7% in May. .Home sales have been floundering at about this same pace for the past two years. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist said that. “The back-and-forth in monthly...
Initial Unemployment Claims
July 9, 2026 Initial unemployment claims fell 2 thousand to 215 thousand in the week ending July 4 after having risen 1 thousand in the previous week. The number of people receiving unemployment benefits rose 8 thousand in the week ending June 27 to 1,814 thousand...
Trade Deficit
July 7, 2026 The trade deficit for May widened by $23.0 billion to $77.6 billion after having narrowed by $2.0 billion in April. The trade gap was much wider than had been expected as exports declined and imports rose sharply. It should significantly reduce...
Purchasing Managers Index — Nonmanufacturing
July 6, 2026 The Institute for Supply Management not only publishes an index of manufacturing activity each month, they publish two days later a survey of service sector firms. The business activity index for the service sector declined 2.3 points in June to 55.4...
Trade Gap Widens, Second Quarter GDP Growth Softens
July 2, 2026 The monthly trade deficit is always volatile. The advance look at the goods trade deficit widened sharply in May. As a result, we have reduced our second quarter GDP outlook from 2.6% to 2.0%. Despite the softer growth outlook for the quarter that...
Payroll Employment
July 2, 2026 . .Payroll employment rose by 57 thousand in June after climbing by 129 thousand in May and 148 thousand in April. In the past three months payroll employment has risen on average by 111 thousand per month .The labor market has strengthened somewhat...
Private Employment
July 2, 2026 . Private sector employment rose by 49 thousand in June after climbing by 97 thousand in May and 150 thousand in April. In the past three months payroll employment has risen on average by 99 thousand per month .The labor market has strengthened...
Unemployment Rate
July 2, 2026 OK The unemployment rate fell 0.1% in June to 4.2% after having been unchanged in both April and May at 4.3%. The labor force plunged by 720 thousand in June employment fell by 507 thousand. As a result, the number of unemployed workers declined by...
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