Where Did All the Workers Go?
August 7, 2026 The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that payroll employment declined 23 thousand in July. That was totally unexpected. At the same time the unemployment rate declined 0.1% to 4.1%. These somewhat surprising results came about because the...
GDP, Inflation, and Interest Rate Forecasts
August 7, 2026 The economy expanded at a 1.5% pace in the second quarter and we expect a 3.5% growth rate in the third quarter of this year and 2.3% GDP growth for the year as a whole. Given the GDP forecast above, in 2026 we expect the unemployment rate to be...
Payroll Employment
August 7, 2026 . .Payroll employment declined by 23 thousand in July after rising by 20 thousand in June and 63 thousand in May. The May and June data were revised downwards sharply. In the past three months payroll employment has risen on average by 20 thousand...
Private Employment
August 7, 2026 . .Private sector employment rose by 30 thousand in both June and July and 61 thousand in May. The May and June data were revised downwards sharply. In the past three months private sector employment has risen on average by 40 thousand per month ...
Unemployment Rate
August 7, 2026 OK The unemployment rate fell 0.1% in July to 4.1% after having declined 0.1% June to 4.2% after having been unchanged in May. The labor force fell by 264 thousand in July employment declined by 87 thousand. As a result, the number of unemployed...
Nonfarm Workweek
August 7, 2026 In any given month employers can boost output by either additional hiring workers or by lengthening the number of hours that their employees work. Payroll employment declined by 23 thousand in July. At the same time the nonfarm workweek was...
Average Hourly Earnings
August 7, 2026 Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% in July to $37.62 after climbing 0.3% in June and 0.2% in May, Earnings growth in the past year has been 3.2%. While nominal earnings have risen 3.2% in the past year, inflation has risen by 3.2% so real or...
Average Duration of Unemployment
August 7, 2025 The average duration of unemployment fell 0.6 week in July to 24.9 weeks after having declined 0.5 week in June after having risen 1.6 weeks in May. That works out to an average duration of unemployment of six months. It appears that unemployed...
Nonfarm Productivity
August 6, 2026 Non-farm productivity rose 1.4% in the second quarter after climbing 0.8% in the first quarter, 1.6% in the fourth quarter of last year and 5.2% in the third quarter Second quarter growth rate consisted of a 1.7% increase in output combined with a...
Unit Labor Costs
August 6, 2026 Unit labor costs might be a term that is not familiar to you. Unit labor costs represent the increase in compensation adjusted for the gains in productivity. You might think that if labor costs are rising that would put upward pressure on...
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