No Recession for Now, But Seeds Have Been Planted
May 20, 2022 Traveling this week, so just an abbreviated note. Despite high inflation and higher interest rates the economy continues to chug along. That is both good news and bad news. The good news is that the economy seems to be performing well. The bad news...
Initial Unemployment Claims
May 19, 2022 Initial unemployment claims for the week of May 14 rose 21 thousand to 218 thousand after having fallen 5 thousand in the previous week. The 4-week average for claims rose 21 thousand to 218 thousand. The level has risen slightly in the past couple of...
Housing Starts
May 18, 2022 Housing starts fell 0.2% in april to 1,724 thousand after declining 2.8% in March after climbing by 6.7% in February. Starts have far surpassed the levels where they were in February of 2020 -- prior to the recession. Starts would be at an even...
Homebuilder Confidence
May 17, 2022 Homebuilder confidence fell 8 points in May to 69 after declining 2 points in April, 2 points in March and 0.1 point in January. Despite the consecutive declines, the index remains at a fairly lofty level. Keep in mind that any number over 50...
Industrial Production
May 17, 2022 Industrial production climbed 1.1% in April after rising 0.9% in March, 1.0% in February and 0.8% in January. It is flying. Breaking industrial production down into its three basis categories -- manufacturing, mining, and utilities --the Fed reported...
Retail Sales
May 17, 2022 Retail sales rose 0.9% in April after having risen 1.4% in March and 1.7% in February. In the past year retail sales have climbed by 16.1%. . Despite higher inflation and higher interest rates the consumer appears to be unfazed. Motor vehicle sales...
Business Inventories / Sales Ratio
May 17, 2022 Firms are always trying to keep their inventories in line with sales. When the economy falls into recession, typically businesses do not cut back production as quickly as sales decline, so the inventory/sales ratio rises sharply -- which is exactly...
Tone Down the Rhetoric!
May 13, 2022 We got the message. The Fed has convinced us it is going to be tough on inflation. But that tough talk has scared the pants off all of us. Fed officials have suggested the funds rate is going to 2.5% by the end of this year, 3.5% by the end of...
Producer Price Index
May 12, 2022 The Producer Price Index for final demand includes producer prices for goods, as well as prices for construction, services, government purchases, and exports and covers over 75% of domestic production. Producer prices for final demand rose 0.5% in...
Gasoline Prices
May 11, 2022 Gasoline prices jumped $0.15 cents in the week ending May 9 to $4.33 after having fallen $0.09 in the previous week. In South Carolina gasoline prices tend to about $0.25 below the national average or $4.08. The EIA currently expects gasoline prices...
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