The Rocky Road to Peace
April 10, 2026 On Tuesday Trump said that “a whole civilization will die tomorrow” if Iran failed to meet his deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. A day later he announced a 14-day ceasefire. Huh? What does he really want? War? Or peace? While those two...
GDP, Inflation, and Interest Rate Forecasts
April 10, 2026 The economy expanded at a 0.5% GDP growth in the fourth quarter and we expect a 2.0% growth rate in the first quarter of this year and 2.5% GDP growth for the year as a whole. Given the GDP forecast above, in 2026 we expect the unemployment rate to...
Consumer Price Index
April 10, 2026 The CPI jumped 0.9% in March as oil prices surged after having risen 0.3% in February.. The year-over-year increase is 3.3%. We expect the overall CPI to increase 3.8% in 2026 as higher oil prices work their way through the economy. Food prices were...
GDP
April 9, 2026 The final estimate of fourth quarter GDP rose 0.5% which compares to the preliminary estimate of 1.4% and the revised estimate of 0.7%. GDP rose 4.4%in the third quarter. Much of the shortfall in fourth quarter growth was attributable to the...
Final Sales
April 9, 2026 When the economy is slowing down, firms will accumulate unwanted inventories. Those inventories still show up in GDP, but they are unsold. Hence, GDP will be biased upwards. Similarly, in good times businesses will reduce inventory levels to...
Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers
April 9, 2026 It is important to remember that final sales is a measure of how many domestically produced goods are sold each quarter. But we also sell goods overseas -- our exports. And we purchase goods from other countries -- our imports. In the never-ending...
Gross Domestic Purchases Deflator
April 9, 2026 There are many different deflators that are available. This one is for gross domestic purchases which measures prices paid by U.S. residents. It is the one measure of inflation that the Commerce Department talks about when it releases the GDP...
Personal Income and Consumption Expenditures — Monthly
April 9, 2026 Personal income rose 0.4% in February after gaining 0.3% in January. In the past year personal income has climbed 3.8%. Slower jobs growth has caused a much slower rate of growth in income since the beginning of last year. The growth in income is...
Personal Consumption Expenditures Deflator
April 9, 2026 There are many different measures of inflation, but the one that the Federal Reserve considers to be most important is the personal consumption expenditures deflator, in particular the PCE deflator excluding the volatile food and energy components....
Initial Unemployment Claims
April 9, 2026 Initial unemployment claims rose 16 thousand to 219 thousand in the week ending April 4 after having declined 8 thousand in the previous week. The number of people receiving unemployment benefits fell 37 thousand in the week ending March 28 to 1,794...
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