Predicting the Unpredictable
June 20, 2025 The Fed did exactly what everybody expected it to do – nothing. It left the funds rate in a range from 4.25-4.5%. But the projection materials it provides quarterly indicate two things. First, in a stagflation scenario where GDP growth weakens but...
Housing Starts
June 18, 2025 Housing starts plunged by 9.8% in May to 1,256 thousand after rising 2.7% in April. While starts have been exceptionally volatile in recent months, they do appear to be softening. This reflects uncertainty regarding tariffs and their potential...
Initial Unemployment Claims
June 18, 2025 Initial unemployment claims fell 5 thousand in the week ending June 14 to 245 thousand after having risen 2 thousand in the previous week. The labor market has hardly been affected by layoffs thus far. However, we know that some government workers...
Homebuilder Confidence
June 17, 2025 Homebuilder confidence dropped 2 points in June to 32 after having fallen 6 points in May. This series has been falling steadily since January. Builders are worried about the imposition of tariffs, still high mortgage rates, and the cost of...
Industrial Production
June 17, 2025 Industrial production for May declined 0.2% after having risen 0.1% in April. In the past year industrial production has risen 0.6%. Breaking industrial production down into its three basic categories -- manufacturing, mining, and utilities -- ...
Retail Sales
June 17, 2025 Retail sales declined 0.9% in May after having fallen 0.1% in April. In the past year retail sales have risen 3.5% Some of the dramatic increase in sales in March and continuing into April could be a rebound from the particularly cold/snowy...
Fed Outlook Used to be Murky — It’s Worse Now
June 13, 2025 This week Fed officials will gather to reassess their economic outlook and decide what to do with interest rates for the balance of the year. They will almost certainly opt to leave the funds rate unchanged at this week’s meeting. With regard to...
Consumer Sentiment
June 13, 2025 The final estimate of consumer sentiment for June rose 8.3 points to 60.5 after having been unchanged in May. Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu said, "Consumer sentiment improved for the first time in six months, climbing 16% from last month...
Producer Price Index
June 12, 2025 The Producer Price Index for final demand includes producer prices for goods, as well as prices for construction, services, government purchases, and exports and covers over 75% of domestic production. Producer prices for final demand rose 0.1% in...
Small Business Optimism
June 11, 2025 . Small business optimism rose 3.0 points in May to 98.8f after having fallen 1.6 points in April. The index level also remains close to the 40-year average so-called breakeven point for this series which is 98.0. Note also that small business...
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