The Lure and Danger of Deflation
March 15, 2024 We have written frequently about how the Fed’s temporary run-up in inflation turned out not to be temporary. Because wages have not kept pace with the jump in prices, consumer purchasing power has been reduced. This has soured consumer attitudes...
Consumer Sentiment
March 15, 2024 The preliminary estimate of consumer sentiment for March declined 0.4 point to 76.5 after having fallen 2.1 points in February . Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu said, "Consumer sentiment moved little this month with a 0.4 index point...
Industrial Production
March 15, 2024 Industrial production rose 0.1% in February after having fallen 0.5% in January. In the past year industrial production has declined 0.2%. The manufacturing sector has been essentially unchanged for the past year. Breaking industrial production...
Producer Price Index
March 14, 2024 The Producer Price Index for final demand includes producer prices for goods, as well as prices for construction, services, government purchases, and exports and covers over 75% of domestic production. Producer prices for final demand jumped 0.6% in...
Initial Unemployment Claims
March 14, 2024 Initial unemployment claims fell 1 thousand in the week ending March 9 to 209,000 after declining 3 thousand in the previous week. Thus far, in the face of rising interest rates and the fear of a recession, employers are reluctant to lay off...
Retail Sales
March 14, 2024 Retail sales rose 0.6% in February after having declined 1.1% in January. In the past year retail sales have risen by 1.9%. Weather undoubtedly played a role in depressing January sales. Having said that, we would have expected a larger increase...
Consumer Price Index
March 12, 2924 The CPI rose 0.4% in February after climbing 0.3% in January. The year-over-year increase is currently 3.2%. We expect the CPI to increase 3.3% in 2024. While the markets are convinced that inflation will continue to improve rapidly, that is...
Hiring Stays Strong, Productivity Accelerating
March 8, 2024 Every month employers have a choice. If demand remains solid they can either hire more workers, or work their existing employees longer hours. If in any given month economists know how many people are working and how many hours they worked, they can...
Payroll Employment
March 8, 2024 Payroll employment jumped by 275 thousand in January after climbing 229 thousand in January and 290 thousand in December. In the past three months the average increase has been 265 thousand. The February increase was larger than the 195 thousand...
Private Employment
March 8, 2024 Private sector employment jumped by 223 thousand in January after climbing 177 thousand in January and 214 thousand in December. In the past three months the average increase has been 205 thousand. The February increase was larger than the 170...
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