Unsustainable

July 12, 2024 Last month the Congressional Budget Office revised (upwards) its estimate of the budget deficit for the current fiscal year to $1.9 trillion. The deficits thereafter climb steadily to $2.9 trillion by 2034. To put that in perspective, the 2034 deficit...

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Consumer Sentiment

July 12, 2024 The final estimate of consumer sentiment for July declined 2.2 points to 66.0 after having fallen 0.9 point in June as consumers worry that inflation might remain higher than expected for a protracted period, and that the Fed might not cut rates at...

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Producer Price Index

July 12 2024 The Producer Price Index for final demand  includes producer prices for goods, as well as prices for construction, services, government purchases, and exports and covers over 75% of domestic production. Producer prices for final demand for 0.2% in June...

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Initial Unemployment Claims

July 11, 2024 Initial unemployment claims rose 4 thousand in the week ending June 29 to 238 thousand after declining 5 thousand the previous week.   This series has been fluctuating in a narrow range for more than two years. The number of people receiving...

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Consumer Price Index

July 11, 2024 The CPI fell 0.1% in June after having been unchanged in May. The year-over-year increase is currently 3.0%.  We expect the CPI to increase 2.9% in 2024. Food prices rose 0.2% in June after climbing 0.1% in May.    In the past year food prices have...

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Payroll Employment

July 5, 2024 Payroll employment for June rose 206 thousand following downward revised gains in May ot 218 thousand and 108 thousand in April.  In the past three months the average increase has been 177 thousand.  The employment gains are clearly slowing down, but...

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Private Employment

J July 5, 2024 Private sector employment for June rose 136 thousand following downward revised gains in May ot 193 thousand and 108 thousand in April.  In the past three months the average increase has been 146 thousand.  The employment gains are clearly slowing...

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Unemployment Rate

July 5, 2024 The unemployment rate rose 0.1% in June to 4.1% ((4.054%) after increasing 0.1% in May to 4.0% after having risen 0.1% in April to 4.0%.  In June  the labor force rose by 277 thousand..  Employment increased 116 thousand.  As a result, the number of...

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