Existing Home Sales
March 21, 2023 . Existing home sales jumped 14.5% in February to 4,580 thousand after having declined 0.7% in January . In fact, this is first increase in sales after having declined for twelve consecutive months. In February sales rose in every region. Lawrence...
Perception Matters
March 17, 2023 The banking crisis has now swallowed three U.S. institutions -- Silvergate, Silicon Valley Bank, and Signature Bank -- and threatens First Republic Bank. There was a legitimate fear that other regional banks could have similar difficulties. Despite...
GDP, Inflation, and Interest Rate Forecasts
March 17, 2023 GDP growth rose 3.2% in the third quarter and 2.7% in the fourth quarter. We expect GDP growth in the first quarter to be 2.0% and January data were surprisingly strong. We also anticipate GDP growth for the year to be 1.2% in 2023 even though the...
Consumer Sentiment
March 17, 2023 The preliminary estimate of consumer sentiment for March declined 3.6 points to 63.4 after having risen 2.1 points in February The June level of 50.0 was the lowest on record and roughly comparable to the low levels reached in the 1980 recession....
Industrial Production
March 17, 2023 Industrial production was unchanged in February after having risen 0.3% in January. In the past year production has declined 0.2%. Breaking industrial production down into its three basis categories -- manufacturing, mining, and utilities --the...
Housing Starts
March 16, 2023 Housing starts jumped 9.8% in February to 1,450 thousand after having declined 2.0% in January. Given that the homebuilder's report has risen for several months, it is likely that January will prove to be the lowpoint for housing starts....
Initial Unemployment Claims
March 16, 2023 Initial unemployment claims fell 20 thousand in the week ending March 11 to 192 thousand after having risen 22 thousand in the previous week. Thus far, in the face of rising interest rates and the fear of a recession, employers are reluctant to lay...
Homebuilder Confidence
March 15, 2023 Homebuilder confidence rose 2 points in March to 44 after jumping 7 points in February and 4 points in January. These consecutive increases are the first in this series since December 2021 when this series peaked at 84. The combination of a drop in...
Producer Price Index
March 15 2023 The Producer Price Index for final demand includes producer prices for goods, as well as prices for construction, services, government purchases, and exports and covers over 75% of domestic production. Producer prices for final demand fell 0.1% in...
Retail Sales
March 15, 2023 Retail sales declined 0.4% in February after having jumped 3.2% in January. In the past year retail sales have climbed by 5.4%. In the past three months sales have climbed at a 7.9% annual rate. Motor vehicle sales fell 1.8% in February after having...
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