The Election Results Should be Good for the Economy
November 6, 2026 Two things happened this past week. The election on Tuesday, followed by wild swings in stock prices on the final three days of the week. So is this good or bad? On balance, we think it is good. The stock market surged on Wednesday, got clobbered...
GDP, Inflation, and Interest Rate Forecasts
November 6, 2026 We expect a 2.8% GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of this year which would give us 2.7% growth for the year as a whole. We expect 2.6% GDP growth in 2027. Given the GDP forecast above, we expect the unemployment rate to be steady at 4.1% at...
Payroll Employment
November 6, 2026 . .Payroll employment rose by 165 thousand in October after having gained 60 thousand in September after climbing by 186 thousand in August. In the past three months payroll employment has risen on average by 137 thousand per month .The labor...
Private Employment
November 6, 2026 . Private sector employment rose by 159 thousand in October after having gained 78 thousand in September after climbing by 142 thousand in August. In the past three months payroll employment has risen on average by 126 thousand per month. The...
Unemployment Rate
November 6, 2026 OK The unemployment rate fell 0.1% in October to 4.1% after having risen 0.1% in September. The labor force jumped by 421 thousand in October while employment rose by 463 thousand. As a result, the number of unemployed workers fell by 41 thousand...
Nonfarm Workweek
November 6, 2026 In any given month employers can boost output by either additional hiring workers or by lengthening the number of hours that their employees work. Payroll employment rose by 165 thousand in October. At the same time the nonfarm workweek was...
Average Hourly Earnings
November 6, 2026 Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% in October to $38.00 after climbing 0.3% in September Earnings growth in the past year has been 3.1%. While nominal earnings have risen 3.1% in the past year, inflation has risen by 3.6% so real or...
Average Duration of Unemployment
November 6, 2025 The average duration of unemployment rose 2.3 weeks in October to 27.1 weeks after having declined 1.5 weeks in September. That works out to an average duration of unemployment of about six months. It appears that unemployed workers are having a...
Nonfarm Productivity
November 5, 2026 Non-farm productivity rose 3.6% in the third quarter after having climbed 2.1% in the second quarter. The third quarter growth rate consisted of a 3.7% increase in output combined with a 0.1% increase in hours worked. Hence, a 3.6% increase in...
Unit Labor Costs
November 5, 2026 Unit labor costs might be a term that is not familiar to you. Unit labor costs represent the increase in compensation adjusted for the gains in productivity. You might think that if labor costs are rising that would put upward pressure on...
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