The Recession Began in March – But It Will Not Last Long
April 3, 2020 The employment report for March showed a much larger job loss than had been expected as payroll employment declined 701 thousand. However, the bulk of the impact lies ahead. For what it is worth, we expect payroll employment to shrink by 5 million...
GDP, Inflation, and Interest Rate Forecasts
April 3, 2020 Given the government's response to the corona virus, the economy has stopped dead in its tracks. It started to fall precipitously in March. However, January and February were very strong months for the economy. As a result, we expect Q1 GDP growth...
Purchasing Managers Index — Nonmanufacturing
April 3, 2020 The Institute for Supply Management not only publishes an index of manufacturing activity each month, they publish two days later a survey of non-manufacturing firms -- which largely consists of services. The business activity index fell 9.8 points in...
Private Employment
April 3, 2020 Private employment declined 713 thousand in March after having risen 242 thousand in March. Given the sharp drop in employment in that month, the National Bureau of Economic Research will probably conclude that the expansion ended in February 2020...
Payroll Employment
April 3, 2020 Payroll employment declined 701 thousand in March after having risen 275 thousand in March. Given the sharp drop in employment in that month, the National Bureau of Economic Research will probably conclude that the expansion ended in February 2020...
Unemployment Rate
April 3, 2020 The unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped 0.9% in March from 3.5% to 4.4%. The labor force fell 1,633 thousand in March. Apparently, some of those workers who lost jobs gave up looking for another one because they knew it was unlikely to happen, or...
Nonfarm Workweek
April 3, 2020 In any given month employers can boost output by either additional hiring or by lengthening the number of hours that their employees work. Payroll employment for March fell 701 thousand as restaurants and bars closed, retail jobs declined, doctors...
Average Hourly Earnings
April 3, 2020 Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% in March to $28.62 after having risen 0.3% in February, During the past year hourly earnings have risen 3.1%. The somewhat surprising increase in hourly earnings in March almost certainly reflects the fact that...
Average Duration of Unemployment
April 3, 2020 The average duration of unemployment plunged by 3.8 weeks in March from 20.9 weeks to 17.1. This is because the BLS reported that 3.5 million workers have now been unemployed "less than 5 weeks" compared to 2.0 million who were in that category in...
Trade Deficit
April 2, 2020 The trade deficit for February narrowed $5.5 billion to $39.9 billion after having narrowed by $3.1 billion in January. The $887 billion trade deficit in goods for 2018 was a record high level. It narrowed slightly to $866 billion in 2019....
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