Solving the Wrong Problem
September 13, 2019 The European Central Bank provided a surprise dose of monetary stimulus this past week. Not only did it cut interest rates, it announced a new bond-buying program designed to get the economy going. However, policy makers in Europe and the U.S....
GDP, Inflation, and Interest Rate Forecasts
September 13, 2019 The preliminary estimate of second quarter GDP growth came in at 2.1% after having risen 3.1% in the first quarter. For the year as a whole we anticipate 2.5.% GDP growth after having risen 2.5% in 2018. . Consumer spending jumped 4.3% in the...
Consumer Sentiment
September 13, 2019 The final estimate of consumer sentiment for September rose by a modest 2.2 points in September to 92.0 after having fallen 8.6 points in August . Despite the drop the levels for consumer sentiment in August and September are still quite...
Retail Sales
September 13, 2019 Retail sales 0.4% in August. But that follows gains of 0.4% in April, 0.5% in May, 0.4% in June, and 0.8% in July.. Any way you slice it, consumer spending remains solid. During the past year retail sales have risen 4.0%, but in the past...
Consumer Price Index
September 12, 2019 The CPI rose 0.1% in August after having risen 0.3% in July.. During the past year the CPI has risen 1.8%. Food prices were unchanged in August and rose 0.1% in both June and July. Food prices have risen 1.7% in the past twelve months. These...
Producer Price Index
September 11, 2019 The Producer Price Index for final demand - intermediate demand includes producer prices for goods, as well as prices for construction, services, government purchases, and exports and covers over 75% of domestic production. Producer prices for...
Gasoline Prices
September 11, 2019 Gasoline prices at the retail level fell $0.01 in the week ending September 9 to $2,55 per gallon. In South Carolina gasoline prices tend to about $0.25 below the national average or about $2.30. The Department of Energy expects national...
Unemployment vs. Job Openings
September 10, 2019 The Labor Department reported that job openings fell 0.4% in July to 7,217 thousand after declining 1.8% in June. Job openings seem to be bouncing around from month to month at a very elevated level. Indeed, there are far more job openings...
Small Business Optimism
September 10, 2019 .Small business optimism fell 1.6 points in August to 103.1 after having risen 1.4 points in July.. The August 2018 level of 108.8 broke the previous record high level of 108.0 set 35 years ago back in July 1983. The current level of...
The Forgotten 70%
September 6, 2019 The consensus view is that the tariffs imposed by President Trump have increased the risk of recession in 2020. Even the Federal Reserve seems to buy into that scenario. We continue to disagree with that conclusion for two reasons. First,...
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