Purchasing Managers Index
August 3, 2020 The Institute for Supply Management’s index of conditions in the manufacturing sector rose 1.6 points in July to 54.2 after jumping 9.5 points in June and having climbed by 1.6 points in May. This is the highest level for this index since March of...
This Is Not the Time to be Negative
July 31, 2020 GDP fell 32.9% in the second quarter. No great surprise. Growth will rebound in the third quarter, but how big is big? The early consensus appears to be for third quarter growth of 15%. We are much more optimistic and anticipate a GDP jump of...
GDP, Inflation, and Interest Rate Forecasts
July 31, 2020 The government's response to the corona virus stopped the economy dead in its tracks. It started to fall precipitously in March and then collapsed in April. However, it began to turn upwards in May and the rebound gathered momentum in June. As a...
Consumer Sentiment
July 31, 2020 The final estimate of consumer sentiment for July fell 5.6 points in July 72.5. That compares to an initial reading of 73.2. Thus, sentiment appears to have declined somewhat in the second half of the month as the more rapid pace of spread of the...
Employment Cost Index
July 31, 2020 The employment cost index for civilian workers climbed at a 2.0% rate in the second quarter after having risen at a 3.2% pace in the first quarter. Over the course of the past year it has risen 2.7%. With the unemployment rate having climbed to...
Personal Income and Consumption Expenditures — Monthly
July 31, 2020 Personal consumption expenditures rose 5.6% in June after having risen 8.5% in May after having plunged by 12.9% in April after having dropped by 6.7% in March. What we are really interested in is consumption spending in real terms (i.e., after...
GDP
July 30, 2020 The preliminary estimate of second quarter GDP growth came in a -32.9% compared to a first quarter drop of 5.0%. That was roughly in line with what had been expected. But that is history and what we are really interested in is what happens next. ...
Final Sales
July 30, 2020 When the economy is slowing down, firms will accumulate unwanted inventories. Those inventories still show up in GDP, but they are unsold. Hence, GDP will be biased upwards. Similarly, in good times businesses will reduce inventory levels to...
Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers
July 30, 2020 It is important to remember that final sales is a measure of how many domestically produced goods are sold each quarter. But we also sell goods overseas -- our exports. And we purchase goods from other countries -- our imports. In the never-ending...
Gross Domestic Purchases Deflator
July 30, 2020 There are many different deflators that are available. This one is for gross domestic purchases which measures prices paid by U.S. residents. It is the one measure of inflation that the Commerce Department talks about when it releases the GDP...
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