Near-term Economic Environment Weakens
September 22, 2023 This past week the Federal Reserve left the funds rate unchanged at 5.5%, which is exactly what was expected. While the Fed may not have raised the funds rate, the bond market took matters into its own hands and significantly raised every other...
Existing Home Sales
September 21, 2023 . Existing home sales declined 0.7% in July to 4,040 thousand after falling 2.2% in July. Home sales are being curtailed by limited supply and an unwillingness of current homeowners to put their homes on the market because they would be forced...
Initial Unemployment Claims
September 14, 2023 Initial unemployment claims fell 20 thousand in the week ending September 16 to 201 thousand after rising 4 thousand in the previous week. Thus far, in the face of rising interest rates and the fear of a recession, employers are reluctant to...
Housing Starts
September 19, 2023 Housing starts plunged by 11.3% in August to 1,283 thousand after having risen 2.0% in July. But given the sharp rise in building permits (see below) it is clear that starts will not remain at this depressed level for long. Starts tend to be...
Homebuilder Confidence
September 18, 2023 Homebuilder confidence fell 5 points in September to 45 after having declined 6 points in August. This series hit bottom in December 2022 at 31. Rising mortgage rates which have climbed to the 7.2% mark has spooked builders. NAHB Chairman Alicia...
The Murky Outlook Should Keep Rates Steady – For Now
September 15, 2023 As data continue to flow in, third quarter GDP growth seems likely to be a solid 3.5%. But in October as student loan borrowers resume payments on their debt the pace of consumer spending is almost certain to slow. At the same time workers at...
GDP, Inflation, and Interest Rate Forecasts
September 15, 2023 GDP growth for the second quarter was 2.1% . Third quarter growth seems to be homing in on about 3.5%. The economy seems to have more positive momentum than anticipated. We now expect GDP and growth for the year to be 2.3% in 2023 even though...
Industrial Production
September 15 2023 Industrial production jrose 0.4% in August after having jumped 0.7% in July. In the past year industrial production has risen 0.2%. On balance, the manufacturing sector remains relatively flat. Breaking industrial production down into its three...
Producer Price Index
September 14, 2023 The Producer Price Index for final demand includes producer prices for goods, as well as prices for construction, services, government purchases, and exports and covers over 75% of domestic production. Producer prices for final demand jumped...
Retail Sales
September 14, 2023 Retail sales rose 0.6% in August after climbing 0.5% in July. In the past year retail sales have risen by 2.5%. Motor vehicle sales rose 0.3% in August after declining 0.4% in July. In the past year car sales have climbed by 4.4% as inventory...
Follow Me