The Temporary Increase Is Becoming Permanent
June 11, 2021 The CPI rose sharply in May for the second consecutive month. Large increases are often attributable to the volatile food and energy categories. Not this time. It is the run-up in the so-called core rate that is troublesome. Much of the increase...
Consumer Sentiment
June 11, 2021 . The preliminary estimate of consumer sentiment for June rose 3.5 points to 86.4 after having declined 5.4 points in May. Thus, consumer sentiment remains well below the pre-recession 101 level for February 2020.. Surveys of Consumers Chief...
GDP, Inflation, and Interest Rate Forecasts
June 10, 2021 . The latest round of $1,400 tax stimulus checks sharply boosted retail sales. The virus is rapidly getting under control and some epidemiologists expect herd immunity to be achieved by May. Given all of that, we expect 10.0% GDP growth in the...
Initial Unemployment Claims
June 10, 2021 Initial unemployment claims for the week of June 5 fell 9 thousand to 376 thousand after having declined 20 thousand in the previous week. In fact this is the sixth consecutive decline in claims and the eighth decline in the past 9 weeks. The June 5...
Consumer Price Index
June 10, 2021 The CPI rose 0.6% in May after having jumped 0.8% in April and 0.6% in March. It rose1.3% in 2020, and the year-over-year increase currently is 4.9%. Food prices climbed 0.4% in both April and May. In the past year food prices have risen 2.1%....
Unemployment vs. Job Openings
June 8, 2021 The Labor Department reported that job openings rose t998 thousand of 12.0% in April to a record high level of 9,286 thousand after rising 762 thousand or 10.1% in March . The BLS reports that the largest increases in openings were in accommodation...
Trade Deficit
June 8, 2021 The trade deficit narrowed by $6.1 billion to $68.0 billion in April after widening by $4.8 billion in March and $3.6 billion in February. Exports climbed by $2.3 billion or 1,1%. It has been in a steady uptrend since the recession ended in April...
Small Business Optimism
June 8, 2021 Small business optimism edged lower by 0.2 point in May to 99.6. Chief Economist William Dunkelberg said, “Small business owners are struggling at record levels trying to get workers back in open positions. Owners are offering higher wages to try to...
Robust GDP Growth, A Worker Shortage, Rising Inflation
June 4, 2021 As each month passes it is clear that the demand side of the economy is showing no sign of slowing down. On the production side, employers are able to hire a respectable number of new workers but they need far more bodies than they are able to find. ...
Payroll Employment
June 4, 2021 Payroll employment rose 559 thousand in May after having risen 278 thousand in April and 785 thousand in March. In addition to hiring people, businesses can also lengthen the hours of existing employees. The nonfarm workweek rebounded was unchanged in...
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