Expectations Weak but Reality May be Different

August 16, 2019 Both the markets and Fed officials continue to expect significant economic weakness or even a recession.  The stock market has fallen 5.0% from its record level set less than a month ago.  The yield curve has inverted slightly.  A Wall Street...

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GDP, Inflation, and Interest Rate Forecasts

August 16, 2019 The preliminary estimate of second quarter GDP growth came in at 2.1% after  having risen 3.1% in the first quarter.  For the year as a whole we anticipate 2.5.% GDP growth after having risen 2.5% in 2018.  . Consumer spending jumped 4.3% in the...

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