A Dream Cycle?

January 9, 2026 Data released in the past several weeks have not only beaten expectations, they have crushed them. For now it is hard to dispute the notion that the economy is on a roll. The trade deficit is shrinking rapidly and is contributing significantly to...

Are the Tariffs Working?

November 21, 2025 A broad package of import duties went into effect on April 2, 2025, which Trump called “Liberation Day:. It is now time to step back and evaluate their impact on the economy thus far. We believe in free trade. In a world without tariffs or quotas...

The Dual Economy

November 14, 2025 The data desert is about to end, but the debates about the pace of economic activity, the rate of inflation, the state of the labor market, and the  proper level of interest rates will linger.  Our suspicion is that when the dust settles and all of...