by sslifer | Feb 26, 2021 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
February 26, 2021 For the first time in a long while bond market participants are concerned about inflation rising as the result of a combination of factors. The economy already has a head of steam with about 8.0% GDP growth expected in the first quarter. The...
by sslifer | Feb 26, 2021 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
February 26, 2021 The Federal Reserve Bank of New York recently released its quarterly report on consumer debt which rose by $206 billion in the fourth quarter to a record high level of $14.56 trillion, driven in part by a steep increase in mortgage originations. ...
by sslifer | Feb 19, 2021 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
February 19, 2021 Every year the Congressional Budget Office updates its forecasts of the budget deficit and Treasury debt outstanding for the upcoming 10-year period. It’s projected deficit for 2021 is $2.3 trillion (10.3% of GDP) which would be the second largest...
by sslifer | Feb 12, 2021 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
February 12, 2021 In a speech to the Economic Club of New York, Fed Chair Powell did a nice job of highlighting the benefits of full employment. In such a situation benefits accrue to all sexes, races, education, and income levels. He then noted that the labor...
by sslifer | Feb 5, 2021 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
February 5, 2021 The employment report for January was generally interpreted as a disappointment because payroll jobs rose by 49 thousand and the December decline, which was originally published as a drop of 140 thousand, was revised to a larger decline of 227...
by sslifer | Jan 29, 2021 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
January 29, 2021 The Fed currently pegs the federal funds rate at 0%. Clearly that is a low rate. But exactly how low is it? What might be regarded as a neutral level for the funds rate? It is not an easy question to answer because the neutral rate seems to be...
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