by sslifer | Aug 16, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
August 16, 2019 Both the markets and Fed officials continue to expect significant economic weakness or even a recession. The stock market has fallen 5.0% from its record level set less than a month ago. The yield curve has inverted slightly. A Wall Street Journal...
by sslifer | Aug 9, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
August 9, 2019 Currently, economists and the Fed are fretting about the fact that short rates are now higher than long rates and the yield curve has “inverted”. The funds rate is at 2.13%. The yield on the 10-year note is 1.7%. Thus, the curve is inverted by about...
by sslifer | Aug 2, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
August 2, 2019 The consensus view is that growth outside the U.S. is crumbling which will, in turn, drastically reduce U.S. GDP growth next year. Then this past week Trump introduced more tariffs on consumer goods from China which will, presumably, exacerbate that...
by sslifer | Jul 26, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
July 26, 2019 Second quarter GDP growth came in about as advertised at 2.1% after having risen 3.1% in the first quarter. While various categories of GDP growth swung widely in the first two quarters they basically evened out if the two quarters are combined. Thus,...
by sslifer | Jul 19, 2019 | Commentary for the Week
July 19, 2019 Over the next two weeks we will learn a lot about GDP growth and how Fed policy might be implemented in the months ahead. No matter what the Fed does at month end its credibility is at stake. And, depending upon the outcome, our view of the economy’s...
by sslifer | Jul 12, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
July 12, 2019 Many Fed officials are itching to cut rates. They keep saying that they see the potential for substantially slower GDP growth later this year. But with each passing data release there is no evidence that is happening or is on the verge of happening. It...
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