by sslifer | Jul 10, 2026 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
July 10, 2026 We have written about the war and oil prices, inflation and the Fed for weeks. Time to switch gears and take a look at the budget deficit for the next decade. Both the budget deficit and Treasury debt outstanding as a percent of GDP are already at record...
by sslifer | Jul 2, 2026 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
July 2, 2026 The monthly trade deficit is always volatile. The advance look at the goods trade deficit widened sharply in May. As a result, we have reduced our second quarter GDP outlook from 2.6% to 2.0%. Despite the softer growth outlook for the quarter that just...
by sslifer | Jun 26, 2026 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
June 26, 2026 Oil prices have plunged in the past month. That was not supposed to happen. Energy experts expected the demand/supply oil imbalance to continue through the end of the year which suggested higher prices ahead and the global inventory shortage to become...
by sslifer | Jun 19, 2026 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
June 19, 2026 Fed Chair Warsh is off to a flying start. The biggest takeaway from this week’s FOMC meeting was Warsh’s statement that “Members of the FOMC are unambiguous and unanimous: This Committee will deliver price stability.” That is a powerful statement. ...
by sslifer | Jun 12, 2026 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
June 12, 2026 The CPI continued to climb in May with the year-over-year increase now at 4.2% — the fastest pace since 2023. That sounds ominous. But the current inflation jump is totally unlike what happened to inflation in the wake of the 2020 recession – and...
by sslifer | Jun 5, 2026 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
June 5, 2026 If there was any doubt, the employment report for May confirmed that the economy is gathering momentum. Following a year when employment was barely climbing, jobs growth in recent months has quickened to about 180 thousand. The long dormant manufacturing...
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