by sslifer | Jul 26, 2024 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
July 26, 2024 Existing home sales plunged 5.4% in June to 3,890 thousand which is the fourth consecutive decline in sales. Its current level is in line with the low points reached in both the 2008-09 and 2020 recessions. A dramatic increase in home prices and...
by sslifer | Jul 19, 2024 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
July 19, 2024 The markets seem to have concluded that the Federal Reserve will cut rates twice between now and yearend with the first cut occurring in September, and that Donald Trump will be the next president with Republicans in control of both the House and the...
by sslifer | Jul 12, 2024 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
July 12, 2024 Last month the Congressional Budget Office revised (upwards) its estimate of the budget deficit for the current fiscal year to $1.9 trillion. The deficits thereafter climb steadily to $2.9 trillion by 2034. To put that in perspective, the 2034 deficit...
by sslifer | Jul 5, 2024 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
July 5, 2024 The employment report for June was weaker than expected and bolstered the markets’ belief that Fed rate cuts could happen as soon as September. In our opinion the markets are once again getting ahead of the Fed. GDP growth is showing some signs of...
by sslifer | Jun 28, 2024 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
June 28, 2024 Recent data suggest that the economy has downshifted from its relatively rapid pace in the first half of the year. However, the political outlook has gotten even more uncertain in the wake of the presidential debate. This clouds the economic outlook...
by sslifer | Jun 21, 2024 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
June 21, 2024 The economic expansion has defied expectations that it would slow markedly in the second half of last year. The Fed raised the funds rate from near 0% to its current level of 5.3% in an extremely short period of time. GDP growth should have slowed. It...
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