by sslifer | Sep 22, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
September 22, 2023 This past week the Federal Reserve left the funds rate unchanged at 5.5%, which is exactly what was expected. While the Fed may not have raised the funds rate, the bond market took matters into its own hands and significantly raised every other...
by sslifer | Sep 15, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
September 15, 2023 As data continue to flow in, third quarter GDP growth seems likely to be a solid 3.5%. But in October as student loan borrowers resume payments on their debt the pace of consumer spending is almost certain to slow. At the same time workers at the...
by sslifer | Aug 25, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
August 25, 2023 How high must the funds rate go before the Fed says it is done tightening? When might the Fed begin to lower the funds rate? Fed Chair Powell refuses to answer either of those questions for two good reasons. First, the Fed never wants to be locked...
by sslifer | Aug 18, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
October 18, 2023 The budget problem has arrived. Budget deficits are averaging $2.0 trillion which means that the government must issue an equivalent amount of debt every year to pay its bills. As a result, debt in relation to GDP is expected to climb to 119% by...
by sslifer | Aug 11, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
August 11, 2023 In the wake of the July CPI data there is a growing perception that inflation is steadily subsiding and that the Fed will not need to increase the funds rate further. We are not so sure. Several factors seem important. First, will the economy slow...
by sslifer | Aug 4, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
August 4, 2023 The economy may finally lose some momentum later this year as student loan debt repayment returns in October and as the recent sharp jump in interest rates should provide at least some further growth moderation later in the fourth quarter and the early...
Follow Me