by sslifer | Jul 31, 2020 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
July 31, 2020 GDP fell 32.9% in the second quarter. No great surprise. Growth will rebound in the third quarter, but how big is big? The early consensus appears to be for third quarter growth of 15%. We are much more optimistic and anticipate a GDP jump of 32%. ...
by sslifer | Jul 24, 2020 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
July 24, 2020 Our policy makers in Washington are talking about another stimulus bill of $1.0-3.0 trillion. But the economy does not need the help. Every economic indicator has rebounded vigorously. Third quarter GDP growth should be roughly the same magnitude as...
by sslifer | Jul 17, 2020 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
July 17, 2020 Everyone remains concerned about the more rapid pace of spread of the virus. But economists are being far too pessimistic. What killed the economy in the second quarter was our country’s response to the virus rather than the virus itself. The...
by sslifer | Jul 10, 2020 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
July 10, 2020 There is no question that the virus is spreading more rapidly as the U.S. economy continues to re-open. But we believe that the press is overstating the problem. Meanwhile, every economic indicator released in the past two months has been far higher...
by sslifer | Jul 3, 2020 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
July 3, 2020 Once the March and April data began to unfold it was clear that the economy had fallen into a deep recession. Who would have thought that by May the economy would be rebounding vigorously and that the recession would be over? But yet that is exactly...
by sslifer | Jun 26, 2020 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
June 26, 2020 Corona virus cases are once again climbing and defying states efforts to control it. It is extending its reach into places that were largely spared at the beginning of the outbreak in mid-March. What to do? Reimpose the lockdowns that crushed the U.S....
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