by sslifer | Jul 11, 2025 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
July 11, 2025 New and existing home sales plunged in 2022. We all know why. Home prices surged because of the shortage of building materials in the wake of the 2020 recession. At the same time the Fed began to raise the funds rate in an effort to bring inflation...
by sslifer | Jul 4, 2025 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
July 4, 2025 At first blush the June employment report appeared stronger than expected. Payroll employment rose 147 thousand which was considerably larger than the 100 thousand gain that was expected. The unemployment rate declined 0.1% to 4.1% rather than rising...
by sslifer | Jun 27, 2025 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
June 27, 2024 Personal income declined 0.4% in May while consumer spending fell 0.1%. On the surface it appears that, at long last, the consumer is beginning to curtail his or her pace of spending. But that would be a mistake. Both numbers are seriously distorted. ...
by sslifer | Jun 20, 2025 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
June 20, 2025 The Fed did exactly what everybody expected it to do – nothing. It left the funds rate in a range from 4.25-4.5%. But the projection materials it provides quarterly indicate two things. First, in a stagflation scenario where GDP growth weakens but...
by sslifer | Jun 13, 2025 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
June 13, 2025 This week Fed officials will gather to reassess their economic outlook and decide what to do with interest rates for the balance of the year. They will almost certainly opt to leave the funds rate unchanged at this week’s meeting. With regard to policy...
by sslifer | Jun 6, 2025 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
June 6, 2025 The labor market is supposed to be weakening in response to a variety of headwinds, but it is not doing so. Ditto for the economy. It continues to hang in there. At the beginning of the year Trump and Musk said that they were going to take a hammer to...
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