by sslifer | Jul 28, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
July 28, 2023 GDP climbed 2.4% in the second quarter, 2.0% in the first quarter and 2.6% in the fourth quarter. Clearly, the economy is on a roll. Economists – including those at the Fed — are quickly abandoning their recession forecasts and concluding that...
by sslifer | Jul 21, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
July 21, 2023 After a promising start at the beginning of the year, existing home sales have fallen steadily in recent months to the lowest level in years. On the surface it appears that the housing sector is experiencing serious difficulty. While it is true that...
by sslifer | Jul 14, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
July 14, 2023 Economists continue to expect a recession. Some in the second half of this year. Others, like ourselves, a mild one in the first half of next year. But the stock market is telling a different story. Somewhat remarkably the stock market is within 5%...
by sslifer | Jul 7, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
July 7, 2023 At midyear 2023 the economists who suggest that the economy will slip into recession in the second half of the year must be feeling nervous. The service sector of the economy rebounded in June. The employment report for June was solid with a 209...
by sslifer | Jun 30, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
June 30, 2023 We believe that the primary cause of the run-up in inflation in 2020 and 2021 was excessive growth in the money supply. The Fed initially believed that the inflation surge was caused by temporary factors such as the dramatic increase in energy prices...
by sslifer | Jun 23, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes, Uncategorized
June 23, 2023 With every passing month the Conference Board’s index of leading indicators continues to decline and economists become even more convinced that a recession is on the immediate horizon. The problem is that the economy is not cooperating. Businesses are...
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