April 16, 2026
Industrial production declined 0.5% in March after having risen 0.7% in February. In the past year industrial production has risen 0.7%.
Breaking industrial production down into its three basic categories — manufacturing, mining, and utilities — manufacturing production declined 0.1% in March after having risen 0.4% in February. In the past year manufacturing output has risen 0.5%.
Motor vehicle sector production sank by 3.7% in March after having risen 2.6% in February. This category is very volatile on a month-to-month basis. In the past year motor vehicle production has fallen 3.4%.
Excluding the motor vehicle sector, manufacturing output rose 0.1% in March and gained 0.2% in February In the past year it has risen 0.8%. this is probably the most accurate barometer of growth in the manufacturing sector in March — a slow, gradually rising trend.
High tech production rose 0.7% in March after having declined 0.9% in February. High tech production has risen 6.8% in the past year. This is the strongest part of the industrial production report. It has month to month wiggles but also has a rapidly rising trend. We would suggest that if firms are unable to find an adequate supply of workers, they will turn to technology in an effort to boost production and satisfy the demand for their products. At the same time firms are all experimenting with AI in an effort to figure out how it might help them boost productivity. Thus, we expect high tech production to continue to climb rapidly in the months ahead which should boost productivity growth.
Mining (14%) output fell 1.2%% in March after having risen 2.1% in February. Mining has fallen 0.2% in the past year.
Utilities output fell 2.3% in March after having risen 1.8% in February. Over the past year utility output has risen 3.1%. This component is extremely volatile from month-to-month as the weather fluctuates.
Capacity utilization in the manufacturing sector declined 0.2% in March to 75.3% after having risen 0.2% in February. The utilization rate is below the 77.4% level that is generally regarded as effective full capacity utilization.
Stephen Slifer
NumberNomics
Charleston, SC
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