Industrial Production

February 15, 2024 Industrial production fell 0.1% in January after  having been unchanged in December..  January was a bad weather month which undoubtedly contributed the softness in production in that month.  It should rise more sharply in February.  In the past year...

Retail Sales

February 15, 2024 Retail sales declined 0.8% in January after having risen 0.4% in December.  In the past year retail sales have risen by 1.1%.  This sizable decline in January was a much bigger drop than most economists had expected.  After the fact, it seems likely...

Consumer Price Index

February 13, 2924 The CPI rose 0.3% in January after climbing 0.2% in December. The year-over-year increase is currently 3.1%.  We expect the CPI to increase 3.1% in 2024.  While the markets are convinced that inflation will continue to improve rapidly, that is...

Payroll Employment

February 2, 2024 Payroll employment jumped by 353 thousand in January after having climbed 333 thousand in December.  In the past three months the average increase has been 289 thousand.  At the beginning of last year we were routinely seeing employment gains of  300...

Private Employment

February 2, 2024 Private sector employment jumped by 317 thousand in January after having climbed 278 thousand in December.  In the past three months the average increase has been 249 thousand.  At the beginning of last year we were routinely seeing employment gains...