December 11, 2025
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Small business optimism fose 0.8 point in November to 99.0 after having declined 0.6 point in October. The index level remains slightly above the 40-year average rate of 98.0 which is regarded as the breakeven point for this series.
NFIB Chief Economist William Dunkelberg said, “Although optimism increased, small business owners are still frustrated by the lack of qualified workers. Despite this, more firms still plan to create new jobs in the near future.” He added that, “The
Uncertainty Index rose 3 points from October to 91. An increase in owners reporting uncertainty about capital expenditure plans over the next three to six months was the primary driver of the rise in the Uncertainty Index.
Following a 0.6% decline in GDP in the first quarter GDP growth rebounded in the second quarter by 3.8% and we expect to see 3.3% GDP growth for the third quarter and 2.0% growth in the fourth quarter.The economy still seems to be growing at a respectable pace despite the policy gyrations coming out of Washington.
The core CPI is expected to rise 2.9% in 2025 while the core personal consumption expenditures deflator should rise about 2.8% in 2025. This is the inflation measure that the Fed targets at 2.0%.
The funds rate currently is 3.8%. The Fed believes the so-called “neutral” funds rate is about 3.0%. The Fed chose to cut rates by 0.25% in both September and Ocdtober and is likely to cut rates another o0.25% at their gathering in December.
Stephen Slifer
NumberNomics
Charleston, SC
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