December 4, 2023
Unit car and truck sales fell 0.7% in November to 15.323 million after having declined 1.6% in October. Vehicle sales rose quickly after touching bottom in May of last year, The supply challenges that had curtailed car sales for more than two years has ended. The supplier delivery component of the purchasing managers’ index actually fell below the 50.0 level for the first time in October of 2022 meaning that manufacturers were actually seeing faster deliveries. However, since December of last year car sales have risen very slowly.
We expect GDP growth of 1.5% in the fourth quarter.. Steady gains in employment and higher wages should keep the economy going. But higher real rates, particularly long rates, should curtail growth to 0.7% or so in the first two quarters of next year.