December 42 2025
Unit car and truck sales rose 2.0% in November to 15.6 million after having falleln 6.1% in October. Car sales bounced around earlier in the year as consumers bought cars prior to the imposition of imports in early April. As a result, sales jumped in March and April, but then sagged in May and June and have been bouncing aroind since. Perhaps the best way to judge the current trend pace of sales is to average sales for the first eight months of the year. That average is 16.2 million compared to the November pace of 15.6 million.
Car sales of that magnitude should lead to an increase in retail sales for November of about 0.5%. While the consensus seems to be that consumer spending has slowed considerably since the beginning of the year for all of the reasons that everybody has talked about — tariffs, layoffs of Federal government workers, deporting of immigrants, etc. the reality is that car sales appear to have softened only slightly. In 2024 car sales, for example, averaged 15.9 million versus 15.6 million in November and an average pace of 16.2 million in the first eleven months of 2025.. Does not sound like a significant drop off to us.
GDP declined 0.6% in the first quarter and grew 3.8% in the second quarter. We expect GDP growth of 3.3% in the third quarter and 2.7% for 2026..
Stephen Slifer
NumberNomics
Charleston, SC
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