December 2, 2022

Unit car and truck sales declined 6.5% in November to 14.4 million after having jumped 10,9% in October.   Car and truck sales seem to be gradually inching upwards after touching bottom in May.  It appears that the supply challenges that had curtailed car sales for more than a year seem to have ended.  The supplier delivery component of the purchasing managers’ index actually fell below the 50.0 level for the first time in October meaning that manufacturers were actually seeing faster deliveries.  Indeed, this was the lowest reading for this series since 2009.

We expect GDP growth of  2.0%.in the final quarter of 2022 and continuing at a 1.0% pace in 2023..  Continuing gains in employment, higher wages, and still negative real interest rates through midyear should keep the economy going for a while longer.

Stephen Slifer

NumberNomics

Charleston, SC