May 3, 2022

Unit car and truck sales rise 6.6% in April to a 14.3 million pace after declining 4.0% in March,   In February 2020 — prior to the recession car sales were 16.8 million so they are still 3.5 million below their pre-pandemic level.  The widely-discussed chip shortages is curtailing the manufacturers ability to produce.  Many respondents to the Institute of Supply Management’s monthly survey of manufacturing firms cite shortages of critical electronic components as their biggest challenge.  These shortages are going to last well into 2022.  The drop in sales  is not attributable to reduced demand, but the curtailment of supply.  Dealers simply have few cars in their showroom to sell.

We expect GDP growth of  2.0% GDP growth in the first quarter and 2.0% growth in 2022.  The consumer seems to have shrugged off COVID, higher inflation, higher interest rates, and the war between Ukraine and Russia.

Stephen Slifer

NumberNomics

Charleston, SC