April 5, 2024
Payroll employment jumped by 303 thousand in March after having risen 270 thousand in February and 256 thousand in January. In the past three months the average increase has been 276 thousand. The March increase was larger than the 200 thousand increase that had been expected, and there were slight upward revisions to the employment gains in January and February. The bottom line is that the employment gains remain sizeable. It appears that some undocumented workers crossing the southern border with Mexico are the source of the continuing sizeable gains in employment.
In addition to hiring workers employers can also alter the length of the workweek for their existing workers. The nonfarm workweek rose 0.1 hour in March to 34.4 hours after having risen 0.1 hour in February. After having dipped sharply in January the workweek has come roaring back to the same general level that existed throughout last year. Our sense is that the January drop was adversely impacted by the bad weather that existed in that month.
Job openings have fallen from a record high level of 11.7 million in early 2021 to 8.8 million, but firms continue to be unable to fill open positions. In fact, there are currently 1.4 job openings for every unemployed worker. The demand for labor continues to outpace supply.
The change in employment and hours worked are reflected in the aggregate hours index which rose 0.5% in March to 116.5 after having risen 0.4% in February after having declined 0.4% in January. This index increase by 1.0% in the first quarter which appears to be relatively consistent with our projected 2.5% GDP growth rate for that quarter if productivity climbs 1.5%.
Manufacturing employment was unchanged. Construction employment rose by 39 thousand. Retail trade jobs rose by 18 thousand. Health care jobs gained 72 thousand. Social assistance climbed by 9 thousand. Info tech jobs were unchanged. Transportation and warehousing rose by 1 thousand. Leisure and hospitality jobs climbed by 49 thousand. Professional and business services increased 7 thousand. Financial sector jobs rose 3 thousand. Government jobs rose by 71 thousand almost exclusively at the state and local level.
Given these steady employment gains we expect GDP growth of 2.5% in the first quarter.
Stephen Slifer
NumberNomics
Charleston, S.C.
Steve –
In the first two lines, I believe your number for the average is incorrect and should
be 356,000 rather than 234,000.
You area correct Frank. I just changed it. Employment Fridays are tough. So much data to sift through on those days. Need to digest that, write something about each tidbit, and then write the weekly commentary. Easy to miss something.
Thanks for the heads up.
Is there a way to superimpose this data with the number of layoffs over the course of the same timeframe?
I keep hearing that there are a lot more layoffs this year but I don’t know where to verify that. Thanks!
Hi Tina,
I will send you a chart on initial unemployment claims (layoffs) to your e-mail. I would include it here but somehow I cannot figure out how to get these responses to include a chart. The bottom line is that layoffs overall have been dead flat for almost two years. We keep reading about layoffs by various firms, but it appears that those folks who lose their job are easily able to find a job somewhere else.
It could be the the UAW strike is beginning to boost layoffs, but that will presumably be just a temporary jump.
I tried to send the charts to tinacartigane@gmmail.com (shown above). It came back. Changed it to gmail.com. It came back again. If you give me your email address I will resend.