October 2, 2026
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Private sector employment rose by 46 thousand in September after climbing by 89 thousand in August. In the past three months private sector employment has risen on average by 54 thousand per month .The labor market seems to be improving slowly but steadily.
In addition to hiring workers employers can also alter the length of the workweek for their existing workers. The nonfarm workweek was unchanged in September at 34.4 hours after having risen 0.1 hour in August. This is the highest level for the workweek since March 2024. Prior to the recession the nonfarm workweek was averaging 34.4 hours so it is exactly where it was six years ago.
Job openings have fallen from a record high level of 11.7 million in early 2021 to 7.1 million. Prior to the recession there were about 7.0 million job openings per month versus 7.1 million currently. Today there are 1.0 job openings for every unemployed worker which is essentially where they were prior to the recession.
The change in employment and hours worked are reflected in the aggregate hours index which was unchanged in September at 117.2 after having risen 0.4% in August. This index rose 1.3% in the third quarter which when combined with a 2.2% projected increase in productivity should produce a GDP growth rate of 3.5% for that quarter.
Construction employment rose 11 thousand. Manufacturing employment increased by 9 thousand. Retail trade jobs rose 6 thousand. Transportation and warehousing rose 8 thousand. Info tech jobs declined 10 thousand. Financial sector jobs declined 7 thousand.. Professional and business service sector employment declined by 9 thousand. Health care climbed by 17 thousand. Jobs in social assistance rose 6 thousand. Jobs in the leisure and hospitality industry gained 10 thousand. Government jobs declined by 17 thousand. (Federal government employment declined by 1 thousand in September.)
We expect GDP growth of 3.5% in the third quarter and 2.6% growth for the year followed by 2.6% growth in 2027.
Stephen Slifer
NumberNomics
Charleston, S.C.
We have seen a change in the way companies are hiring employees. As the owner of the staffing company temp to hire has been a very popular strategy the last several years. Now companies are actually hiring people directly to their payroll and willing to pay fees. That would seem to indicate that they do not expect a downturn in the near future. Good news for all of us.
Thanks for the comment, Neil. From what you said, it certainly suggests that if they do expect a recession it will be short and mild and they will soon need those bodies. But what if rates really do need to go to 6% to slow things down enough to trigger the recession? The outcome may not be quite so mild. We will see.
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Jon Witherow
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