by sslifer | Jan 15, 2025 | Employment, NumberNomics Notes
January 15, 2025 Initial unemployment claims rose 14 thousand in the week ending January 11 to 217 thousand after declining 8 thousand in the previous week. This series has changed very little in the past nine months. The 4-week average of claims was 210 thousand...
by sslifer | Jan 15, 2025 | Inflation, NumberNomics Notes
January 15, 2025 The CPI rose 0.4% in December after climbing 0.3% in November and 0.2% in October. The year-over-year increase (for 2024) is 2.9%. We now expect the overall CPI to increase 2.9% in 2025. Food prices rose 0.3% in December after gaining 0.4% in...
by sslifer | Jan 14, 2025 | Inflation, NumberNomics Notes
January 14, 2025 The Producer Price Index for final demand includes producer prices for goods, as well as prices for construction, services, government purchases, and exports and covers over 75% of domestic production. Producer prices for final demand rose 0.2% in...
by sslifer | Jan 10, 2025 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
January 10, 2025 The yield on the 10-year note continues to climb. A month ago it was 4.15%. Today it is 4.74%. It has risen 0.6% in a month. We attribute the dramatic increase to some combination of three factors. First, it appears that part of the increase...
by sslifer | Jan 10, 2025 | Forecasts, NumberNomics Notes
January 10, 2025 The Fed cut the funds rate again in December to 4.3%. We expect the Fed to continue reducing the funds rate to 3.8% by the end of next year. We now expect GDP growth of 2,5% in the fourth quarter followed by 2.9% GDP growth in 2025. Given the GDP...
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