February 27, 2034

Durable goods orders plunged 6.1% in December after falling 0.3% in November. The sizeable change in orders in December was attributable to a dramatic dro0p in civilian aircraft orders.  This category is very volatile on a month-to-month basis.  In the past year durable goods orders have 0.6%.

Much of the change in durables is frequently in the transportation sector — airplanes, cars, and trucks.  In December transportation orders (civilian aircraft orders in particular) fell 16.2%.  As a result non-transportation orders declined 0.3% in December..  In the past year non-transportation orders have risen 1.1%.  The manufacturing sector has been rising slowly  for the past year..

Given the results of the orders component of the Purchasing Managers Index, orders turned upwards in January for the first time since August 2022.

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We expect to see GDP growth of about 1.7% in the first two quarters of this year followed by roughly 2.0% growth in the second  half of 2024.

Stephen Slifer

NumberNomics

Charleston, SC