April 7, 2026

Durable goods orders declined 1.4% in February after having fallen 0.5% in January.   Durable goods orders have risen 7.3% in the past year.

Much of the change in durables is frequently in the transportation sector — airplanes, cars, and trucks.  In February transportation orders declined 5.4% after having fallen 1.9% in January. As a result,  non-transportation orders rose 0.8% in February after climbing 0,3% in January.  In fact, this is the tenth consecutive increase in this category..  The non-transportation sector has risen 5.7% in the past year.  They are climbing slowly but steadily and seem to be accelerating.

The backlog of orders rose 0.1% in February after having increased 0.6% in January.  In the past year the backlog has risen 11.1%..  As the order book builds, manufacturing firms are going to have to ramp up the pace of production by either hiring more workers (if they can find them) or by employing AI to help them increase output.

The orders component of the Purchasing Managers Index had been just below the breakeven level of 50.0  for ages but jumped sharply in the first three months of this year.  Could this be an early indication that the long sluggish manufacturing sector is beginning to wake up?

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We saw 0.7% GDP growth in the fourth quarter as the government shutdown took its toll..  We expect to see GDP growth of 2.0% in the first quarter and 2.5% growth in 2026.

Stephen Slifer

NumberNomics

Charleston, SC