January 28, 2025

Durable goods orders fell 2.2% in December after declining 2.0% in November.    Durable goods orders have declined 3.9% in the past year.

Much of the change in durables is frequently in the transportation sector — airplanes, cars, and trucks.  That was the case in both November and December.  In November transportation orders declined 5.4%.  In December they declined 7.4%.  In both months non-defense aircraft orders plunged.   As a result, non-transportation orders fell 0.2% in November and then rose 0.3% in December.  The non-transportation sector has risen 1.0% in the past year.

The orders component of the Purchasing Managers Index had been hovering slightly below the breakeven level of 50.0 for a long time but has been climbing in recent months.  It could be that the manufacturing sector will turn upwards in the first couple of months of 2025.  too soon to be sure.

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We expect GDP growth of  2.5% in the fourth quarter followed by 2.9% GDP growth in 2025..

Stephen Slifer

NumberNomics

Charleston, SC