July 25, 2034
Durable goods orders fell a sizeable 6.6% in June after having risen 0.1% in May. The decline was attributable to the very volatile transportation sector, non-defense aircraft in particular. With this latest decline durable goods orders have fallen 10.3% in the past year.
Much of the change in durables is frequently in the transportation sector — airplanes, cars, and trucks. In June transportation orders plunged 20.5% almost all of which was in the non-defense aircraft category. As a result, non-transportation orders rose 0.5% in June after declining 0.1% in May and having risen 0.4% in April.. The manufacturing sector has risen 1.2% in the past year.
The orders component of the Purchasing Managers Index had been hovering near the breakeven level of 50.0 for a long time which suggests that durable goods orders will continue to be fairly steady in the months ahead.
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Following GDP growth of 2.8% in the first second quarter we expect to see GDP growth of 1.0-1.5% in the final two quarters of the year as consumer spending slows and home sales retreat.
Stephen Slifer
NumberNomics
Charleston, SC
Stephen,
It fascinates me that in the middle of one of the most gummed up Congress in decades which does not seem to get much of anything done one way or the other, business continues to surge forward beyond expectations. Maybe we are better off with a government that does less instead of more. All we do have to be concerned about is how much more of the wealth of our country gets held in the hands of the “1%” while much of the “99%”, especially those in the lower segments of that large group live in a less than middle class environment. Maybe you have answers to that dilemma.
…Darrel
Dividing new orders by PPI for capital goods and the durables build in orders has been flat. I think this leaves upside for the year ahead. But only a guess on that.
I don’t typically look at the thing you mentioned, but it makes sense to me.