March 26, 2025

Durable goods orders rose 0.9% in February after jumping 3.3% in January .   Durable goods orders have risen 3.4% in the past year.

Much of the change in durables is frequently in the transportation sector — airplanes, cars, and trucks.  In February transportation orders rose 1.5% after having surged by 10.2% in January as the result of a big increase in non-defense aircraft orders.   As a result, non-transportation orders rose 0.7% in February after climbing 0.1% in January.  The non-transportation sector has risen 2.0% in the past year.  They are climbing, but slowly.

The orders component of the Purchasing Managers Index climbed for five months in a row before falling sharply in February.  The spreading imposition of tariffs is having a retarding effect on the demand for goods.

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We expect GDP growth of  1.5% in the first quarter followed by 2.5% GDP growth in 2025..

Stephen Slifer

NumberNomics

Charleston, SC