January 26, 2026
Durable goods orders jumped 5.3% in November after having fallen 2.1% in October. Durable goods orders have risen 5.3% in the past year.
Much of the change in durables is frequently in the transportation sector — airplanes, cars, and trucks. In November transortation orders jumped 14.7% afer having fallen 6.3% in October. As a result, non-transportation orders rose 0.4% in November after gaining 0.2% in October. In fact, this is the seventh consecutive increase in a row in this category.. The non-transportation sector has risen 4.4% in the past year. They are climbing slowly but steadily.
The orders component of the Purchasing Managers Index fhas been just below the breakeven level of 50.0 for the past several months.. Tariffs are having a retarding effect on the demand for goods.
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We saw 4.4% GDP growth in the third quarter. We expect to see GDP growth of 3.8% in the fourth quarter and 2.8% growth in 2026.
Stephen Slifer
NumberNomics
Charleston, SC
Stephen,
It fascinates me that in the middle of one of the most gummed up Congress in decades which does not seem to get much of anything done one way or the other, business continues to surge forward beyond expectations. Maybe we are better off with a government that does less instead of more. All we do have to be concerned about is how much more of the wealth of our country gets held in the hands of the “1%” while much of the “99%”, especially those in the lower segments of that large group live in a less than middle class environment. Maybe you have answers to that dilemma.
…Darrel
Dividing new orders by PPI for capital goods and the durables build in orders has been flat. I think this leaves upside for the year ahead. But only a guess on that.
I don’t typically look at the thing you mentioned, but it makes sense to me.