July 27 2026
Durable goods orders rose 0.3% in June after having plunged by 4.0% in May. Durable goods orders have risen 7.4% in the past year.
Much of the change in durables is frequently in the transportation sector — airplanes, cars, and trucks. In June transportation orders declined 0.2% after having fallen 13.5% in May. As a result, non-transportation orders rose 0.6% in June after having climbed 1.8% in May. This is the 14th consecutive increase in this category.. The non-transportation sector has risen 11.0% in the past year. They are climbing steadily and seem to be accelerating.
The backlog of orders rose 0.6% in June after rising 0.7% in May. In the past year the backlog has risen 8.2%.. As the order book builds, manufacturing firms are going to have to ramp up the pace of production by either hiring more workers (if they can find them) or by employing AI to help them increase output.
The orders component of the Purchasing Managers Index had been just below the breakeven level of 50.0 for ages but jumped sharply in the first six months of this year. This is an early indication that the long sluggish manufacturing sector is beginning to wake up.
.
We saw GDP growth of 1.5% in the second quarter and we expect to see 2.4% growth in 2026.
Stephen Slifer
NumberNomics
Charleston, SC
Stephen,
It fascinates me that in the middle of one of the most gummed up Congress in decades which does not seem to get much of anything done one way or the other, business continues to surge forward beyond expectations. Maybe we are better off with a government that does less instead of more. All we do have to be concerned about is how much more of the wealth of our country gets held in the hands of the “1%” while much of the “99%”, especially those in the lower segments of that large group live in a less than middle class environment. Maybe you have answers to that dilemma.
…Darrel
Dividing new orders by PPI for capital goods and the durables build in orders has been flat. I think this leaves upside for the year ahead. But only a guess on that.
I don’t typically look at the thing you mentioned, but it makes sense to me.