April 24, 2034
Durable goods orders rose 2.6% in March after rising 0.7% in February, but plunging 6.9% in December. While very volatile on a monthly basis, they have risen a modest 1.3% in the past year.
Much of the change in durables is frequently in the transportation sector — airplanes, cars, and trucks. In March transportation orders climbed 7.7% after having rising 1.8% in January but having plunged by 18.3% in December. As a result, non-transportation orders rose 0.2% in March, 0.1% in February, but declined 0.3% in December. Basically, the manufacturing sector has risen 1.0% in the past year..
Given the results of the orders component of the Purchasing Managers Index has been hovering near the breakeven level of 50.0 which suggests that orders will continue to change very little in the months ahead.
.
We expect to see GDP growth of about 2.5% in the first two quarters of this year followed by roughly 2.7% growth in the second half of 2024.
Stephen Slifer
NumberNomics
Charleston, SC
Stephen,
It fascinates me that in the middle of one of the most gummed up Congress in decades which does not seem to get much of anything done one way or the other, business continues to surge forward beyond expectations. Maybe we are better off with a government that does less instead of more. All we do have to be concerned about is how much more of the wealth of our country gets held in the hands of the “1%” while much of the “99%”, especially those in the lower segments of that large group live in a less than middle class environment. Maybe you have answers to that dilemma.
…Darrel
Dividing new orders by PPI for capital goods and the durables build in orders has been flat. I think this leaves upside for the year ahead. But only a guess on that.
I don’t typically look at the thing you mentioned, but it makes sense to me.