February 27, 2025
Durable goods orders jumped 3.1% in January after having fallen 1.8% in December . Durable goods orders have risen 3.4% in the past year.
Much of the change in durables is frequently in the transportation sector — airplanes, cars, and trucks. That was the case in both December and January. In December transportation orders declined 6.2%. In January they jumped 10.7% as the result of a big increase in non-defense aircraft orders. As a result, non-transportation orders rose 0.4% in December and then declined 0.4% in December. The non-transportation sector has risen 1.6% in the past year.
The orders component of the Purchasing Managers Index had been hovering slightly below the breakeven level of 50.0 for a long time but has been climbing in recent months. It could be that the manufacturing sector will turn upwards in the first couple of months of 2025.
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We expect GDP growth of 2.5% in the first quarter followed by 2.8% GDP growth in 2025..
Stephen Slifer
NumberNomics
Charleston, SC
Stephen,
It fascinates me that in the middle of one of the most gummed up Congress in decades which does not seem to get much of anything done one way or the other, business continues to surge forward beyond expectations. Maybe we are better off with a government that does less instead of more. All we do have to be concerned about is how much more of the wealth of our country gets held in the hands of the “1%” while much of the “99%”, especially those in the lower segments of that large group live in a less than middle class environment. Maybe you have answers to that dilemma.
…Darrel
Dividing new orders by PPI for capital goods and the durables build in orders has been flat. I think this leaves upside for the year ahead. But only a guess on that.
I don’t typically look at the thing you mentioned, but it makes sense to me.