by sslifer | Jun 7, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
June 7, 2019 Fed Chair Powell and his colleagues are sending out strong hints that if growth slows as a result of the trade war the Fed is prepared to cut rates. That is a dramatic turnabout from the Fed’s position in March. Is that an accurate reading of the Fed’s...
by sslifer | May 31, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
May 31, 2019 The markets believe that the Fed will cut rates twice by this time next year. The federal funds rate currently is in a range from 2.25-2.5%. However, the December 2019 federal funds rate futures contract stands at 2.06%; the June 2020 contract is...
by sslifer | May 24, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
May 24, 2019 In a recent speech Fed Chair Powell highlighted the recent rapid growth of corporate debt. Not surprisingly, that concern captured headlines in the press. Less noted was his conclusion that such debt was not out of line given a long-lasting expansion,...
by sslifer | May 17, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
May 17, 2017 The latest round of tit-for-tat tariff increases by the U.S. and China has created a significant problem for the Chinese economy. The impact on the U.S. comes largely in the form of a pickup in inflation and higher long-term interest rates which can...
by sslifer | May 10, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
May 10, 2019 The waivers on U.S. sanctions for purchases of Iranian oil expired earlier this month. Oil exports from that country have plunged and the drop-off in economic activity in Iran has accelerated. But will this deteriorating economy result in the regime...
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