Fed Policy is Misguided

October 11, 2014 The Federal Reserve is pleased that inflation is closing in on its 2.0% target. But what exactly is inflation? It is the change in prices in the past twelve months. While prices in the past year have risen slowly, they skyrocketed in prior years. As a...

The Miracle of Revisions

September 27, 2024 This past week we got the annual benchmark revisions to GDP and the income data. GDP growth did not change appreciably, but income growth for the past year doubled from what had been reported previously. That changes the outlook. Prior to the...

Too Much, Too Soon?

September 20, 2023 The financial press has been filled with analysis (and over analysis) of the Fed’s decision to the cut federal funds rate by 0.5% to 4.75-5.0%. Some economic experts suggest that the economy must be far weaker than the Fed is suggesting publicly to...

The Consumer Keeps Spending

September 13, 2024 One of the mysteries of the current expansion has been the contrast between consumer confidence – which is terrible – and consumer spending – which is not.  All of the various consumer confidence surveys are close to the low point reached in the...