by sslifer | Sep 6, 2024 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
September 6, 2024 The employment report for August was the icing on the cake. The labor market continues to cool. The Fed is going to lower the funds rate at its FOMC gathering on September 18. It will most likely be a 0.25% cut to the 5.0-5.25% range. But some...
by sslifer | Aug 30, 2024 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
August 30, 2024 Economists have a nagging concern that the economy could be teetering on the brink of a recession. They note several potential difficulties. Consumers are worried about the outcome of the election and the possibility of higher tax rates in the years...
by sslifer | Aug 23, 2024 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
August 23, 2024 This past week the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its preliminary estimate of the annual revision to the payroll employment data. It caused quite a stir. The BLS reported that in March 2024 there were 818 thousand fewer workers on the job than...
by sslifer | Aug 16, 2024 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
August 16, 2024 It looks increasingly likely that the market jitters earlier in the month were temporary and caused by a few weak data points combined with the unwinding of the Japanese yen carry trade being used to finance bond purchases in the U.S. and elsewhere. In...
by sslifer | Aug 9, 2024 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
August 9, 2024 Following the release of several soft data points highlighted by the June employment report, the market quickly concluded that a recession is imminent and the fixed income market priced in a full percentage point of Fed rate cuts by December. Given...
by sslifer | Aug 6, 2024 | Miscellaneous, NumberNomics Notes
August 6, 2024 The trade deficit narrowed by $1.9 billion in June to $73.1 billion after having widened by $0.5 billion in May t it has been gradually widening since the beginning of the year in response to the stronger dollar. Exports rose $3.9 billion or 1.5% in...
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