by sslifer | May 10, 2024 | Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, NumberNomics Notes
May 10, 2024 . The federal funds rate is the overnight rate that banks charge each other to borrow/lend reserves. Some banks have more reserves than they need. Others (principally large banks) are short of reserves and must borrow from other banks in the system,...
by sslifer | May 3, 2024 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
May 3, 2024 Economists have been waiting for the economy to slow for more than a year. Their dire warning of a recession last year proved completely off base as firms continued to hire workers and consumers continued to spend, but perhaps the economy is finally...
by sslifer | Apr 26, 2024 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 26, 2024 The slower-than-expected 1.6% GDP growth rate in the first quarter and the faster-than-expected increase in the core personal consumption expenditures deflator of 3.7% was generally regarded as the worst of both worlds. That is not quite true. ...
by sslifer | Apr 19, 2024 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 19, 2024 Economic forecasts have been notably inaccurate for the past couple of years. Virtually every economist expected a recession in the second half of last year. But growth for the year was a solid 3.1%. Most economists expected the inflation...
by sslifer | Apr 12, 2024 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 12, 2024 The larger-than-expected increase in the consumer price index for March combined with a robust employment report for that month, has ignited a fear that the Fed will not ease nearly as much as hoped for in the second half of this year. A month ago the...
by sslifer | Apr 5, 2024 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 5, 2024 The economy continues to be on a roll. The monthly employment gains are impressive. The workweek has rebounded. First quarter GDP growth keeps getting revised higher. We have raised our GDP estimates for both the first and second quarters from 2.2%...
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