by sslifer | Nov 1, 2024 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
November 1, 2024 Inflation fears have permeated the bond market as the yield on the 10-year note has risen 0.7% since mid-September. This dramatic increase seems to reflect inflation concerns stemming from the policies advocated by both presidential candidates. ...
by sslifer | Oct 31, 2024 | Inflation, NumberNomics Notes
October 31, 2024 The employment cost index for civilian workers climbed at a 3.1% annual rate in the third quarter after rising at a 3.7% pace in the second quarter. Over the course of the past year it has risen 3.9%. The employment cost index peaked at 5.1% in the...
by sslifer | Oct 24, 2024 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
October 25, 2024 On Thursday we will get our first look at third quarter GDP growth. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast suggests it will be 3.4%. But we know from the employment report that hours worked in the quarter edged up by just 0.2% which suggests that GDP...
by sslifer | Oct 18, 2024 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
October 18, 2024 Fiscal year 2024 ended with a yawning budget gap of $1.9 trillion. Another $1.9 trillion was added to the already record amount of debt outstanding with much more to come. The baseline deficit projections from the Congressional Budget Office do not...
by sslifer | Oct 11, 2024 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
October 11, 2014 The Federal Reserve is pleased that inflation is closing in on its 2.0% target. But what exactly is inflation? It is the change in prices in the past twelve months. While prices in the past year have risen slowly, they skyrocketed in prior years. As a...
by sslifer | Oct 4, 2024 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
October 4, 2024 Every time economists conclude that the long-awaited slowdown is at hand they get slammed. This time it was by the strong employment report for September. Payroll employment for that month rose 254 thousand which was far bigger than even the most...
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