by sslifer | Aug 16, 2024 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
August 16, 2024 It looks increasingly likely that the market jitters earlier in the month were temporary and caused by a few weak data points combined with the unwinding of the Japanese yen carry trade being used to finance bond purchases in the U.S. and elsewhere. In...
by sslifer | Aug 9, 2024 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
August 9, 2024 Following the release of several soft data points highlighted by the June employment report, the market quickly concluded that a recession is imminent and the fixed income market priced in a full percentage point of Fed rate cuts by December. Given...
by sslifer | Aug 2, 2024 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
August 2, 2024 The Fed’s announcement that it intends to cut the funds rate in September was widely expected (although we thought the Fed would wait until December). However, the employment report for July revealed considerable labor market weakness —...
by sslifer | Jul 26, 2024 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
July 26, 2024 Existing home sales plunged 5.4% in June to 3,890 thousand which is the fourth consecutive decline in sales. Its current level is in line with the low points reached in both the 2008-09 and 2020 recessions. A dramatic increase in home prices and...
by sslifer | Jul 19, 2024 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
July 19, 2024 The markets seem to have concluded that the Federal Reserve will cut rates twice between now and yearend with the first cut occurring in September, and that Donald Trump will be the next president with Republicans in control of both the House and the...
by sslifer | Jul 12, 2024 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
July 12, 2024 Last month the Congressional Budget Office revised (upwards) its estimate of the budget deficit for the current fiscal year to $1.9 trillion. The deficits thereafter climb steadily to $2.9 trillion by 2034. To put that in perspective, the 2034 deficit...
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