by sslifer | May 24, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
May 24, 2019 In a recent speech Fed Chair Powell highlighted the recent rapid growth of corporate debt. Not surprisingly, that concern captured headlines in the press. Less noted was his conclusion that such debt was not out of line given a long-lasting expansion,...
by sslifer | May 17, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
May 17, 2017 The latest round of tit-for-tat tariff increases by the U.S. and China has created a significant problem for the Chinese economy. The impact on the U.S. comes largely in the form of a pickup in inflation and higher long-term interest rates which can...
by sslifer | May 10, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
May 10, 2019 The waivers on U.S. sanctions for purchases of Iranian oil expired earlier this month. Oil exports from that country have plunged and the drop-off in economic activity in Iran has accelerated. But will this deteriorating economy result in the regime...
by sslifer | May 3, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
May 3, 2019 Perhaps the biggest economic surprise of the past year has been the stubbornly low inflation rate. Over the course of the past year the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures deflator (excluding the volatile food and...
by sslifer | Apr 26, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 26, 2019 There has been a lot of chatter lately about a moderate reduction in foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities last year. Frankly, we think this is much ado about nothing. But before exploring foreign holdings of Treasuries, who actually owns U.S....
by sslifer | Apr 19, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 19, 2019 Next Friday, April 26, first quarter GDP growth will be released. Estimates of growth for this quarter have swung dramatically as additional data became available. For example, the widely followed GDPNow estimate produced by the Atlanta Fed started at...
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