by sslifer | Jul 12, 2024 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
July 12, 2024 Last month the Congressional Budget Office revised (upwards) its estimate of the budget deficit for the current fiscal year to $1.9 trillion. The deficits thereafter climb steadily to $2.9 trillion by 2034. To put that in perspective, the 2034 deficit...
by sslifer | Jul 5, 2024 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
July 5, 2024 The employment report for June was weaker than expected and bolstered the markets’ belief that Fed rate cuts could happen as soon as September. In our opinion the markets are once again getting ahead of the Fed. GDP growth is showing some signs of...
by sslifer | Jun 28, 2024 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
June 28, 2024 Recent data suggest that the economy has downshifted from its relatively rapid pace in the first half of the year. However, the political outlook has gotten even more uncertain in the wake of the presidential debate. This clouds the economic outlook...
by sslifer | Jun 21, 2024 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
June 21, 2024 The economic expansion has defied expectations that it would slow markedly in the second half of last year. The Fed raised the funds rate from near 0% to its current level of 5.3% in an extremely short period of time. GDP growth should have slowed. It...
by sslifer | Jun 14, 2024 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
June 14, 2024 Once a quarter the Federal Reserve updates its forecasts for GDP growth, inflation, and interest rates for the next couple of years. Economists agonize over the significance of the Fed’s latest forecasts relative to what it thought three months earlier....
by sslifer | Jun 7, 2024 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
June 7, 2024 The employment report is the first solid piece of data released for any given month. Because it not only provides information on employment but also on hours worked and earnings for the economy as a whole as well as a wide range of different sectors, it...
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