May 27, 2016
GDP rose 0.8% in the first quarter. This estimate will be revised again next month.
Keep in mind that first quarter GDP growth tends to be the weakest quarter of the year. Thus, we expect GDP to rise 2.2% in the second quarter, somewhat faster in the second half of the year, and climb by 2.2% for 2016 as a whole.
As we see it, jobs are rising steadily by 200 thousand per month, the unemployment rate is gradually declining, the stock market is near another record high level, consumers feel good, the housing sector is on a roll, the Fed will keep rates low for a long while to come, oil prices remain low, and the drag on growth from the trade sector should disappear as the year progresses given the recent softness in the dollar.
Stephen Slifer
NumberNomics
Charleston, SC
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