December 2, 2010
Initial unemployment claims rose 26 thousand in the week ending November 27. However, as you know, this is a volatile series and to analyze it we tend to focus on the 4-week moving average which fell another 6 thousand to 431 thousand. That is the lowest it has been since July 2008. Thus, at long last it appears that the labor market is beginning to improve. The employment report for November to be released tomorrow (December 3) is the most important set of economic data to be released between now and Christmas. The consensus is for a gain of about 150 thousand. Look also for another 0.1 hour increase in the nonfarm workweek. If those figures are accurate we could be looking at a fourth quarter GDP number that is in excess of the 3.5% we are currently projecting. That GDP figure, however, will not be released until the end of January.
Stephen Slifer
NumberNomics
Charleston, SC
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