April 30, 2025
As shown above the ADP survey shows a respectable correlation with the private sector portion of the payroll employment data to be released a couple of days later. And well it should. ADP, or Automatic Data Processing, Inc. is a provider of payroll-related services. Currently, ADP processes over 500,000 payrolls, for approximately 430,000 separate business entities, covering over 23 million employees. The survey has been in existence since January 2001, and its average error in the past couple of years has been 74 thousand.
The ADP report showed a jobs gain of 62 thousand in April after having risen 147 thousand in March. In the past three months the average monthly increase is 98 thousand.
.Nela Richardson, the Chief Economist for ADP said, “Unease is the word of the day. Employers are trying to reconcile policy and consumer uncertainty with a run of mostly positive economic data. It can be difficult to make hiring decisions in such an environment.”
Payroll employment has slowed gradually with job gains currently averaging 152 thousand per month. The labor market remains roughly in balance, but angst about the new Administration’s plans with regard to tariffs, layoffs of federal workers, and deportation of illegal immigrants have made some employers nervous about additional hiring until the future course of the economy becomes more clear.
Given the ADP report, we are looking for payroll employment to rise by 130 thousand in April. We will get that report from the BLS on Friday. We also expect the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.2%.
Stephen Slifer
NumberNomics
Charleston, SC
Follow Me