April 1, 2026
As shown above the ADP survey shows a respectable correlation with the private sector portion of the payroll employment data to be released a couple of days later. And well it should. ADP, or Automatic Data Processing, Inc. is a provider of payroll-related services. Currently, ADP processes over 500,000 payrolls, for approximately 430,000 separate business entities, covering over 23 million employees. The survey has been in existence since January 2001, and its average error in the past couple of years has been 96 thousand.
The ADP report showed an increase in jobs of 62 thousand in March after having registered an increase of 66 thousand in Febuary. In the past three months the average monthly increase is 46 thousand.
.For the secod straight month the smallest empoyers drove the job growth. Nela Richardson, the Chief Economist for ADP said, “Overall hiring is steady, but job growth continues to favor certain industries, including health care. In March, this solid performance was accompanied by a boost in pay gains for job-changers.
The labor market remains roughly in balance, but angst about the Administration’s plans with regard to tariffs, layoffs of federal workers, deportation of illegal immigrants, and the war with Iran, has many employers nervous about additional hiring until the future course of the economy becomes more clear.
Given the ADP report, we are looking for payroll employment to rise by 60 thousand in March. The February data will be released on Friday, April 3.
Stephen Slifer
NumberNomics
Charleston, SC
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