January 7, 2026
As shown above the ADP survey shows a respectable correlation with the private sector portion of the payroll employment data to be released a couple of days later. And well it should. ADP, or Automatic Data Processing, Inc. is a provider of payroll-related services. Currently, ADP processes over 500,000 payrolls, for approximately 430,000 separate business entities, covering over 23 million employees. The survey has been in existence since January 2001, and its average error in the past couple of years has been 61 thousand.
The ADP report showed an increase in jobs of 41 thousand in December after having registered a decline of 29 thousand in November. In the past three months the average monthly increase is 20 thousand.
.Nela Richardson, the Chief Economist for ADP said, ““Small establishments recovered from November job losses with positive end-of-year hiring, even as large employers pulled back,”
Payroll employment has slowed gradually with job gains currently averaging 15 thousand per month. The labor market remains roughly in balance, but angst about the Administration’s plans with regard to tariffs, layoffs of federal workers, and deportation of illegal immigrants have made some employers nervous about additional hiring until the future course of the economy becomes more clear.
Given the ADP report, we are looking for payroll employment to rise by 50 thousand in December. The December data will be released on Friday, January 9.
Stephen Slifer
NumberNomics
Charleston, SC
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