by sslifer | Aug 11, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
August 11, 2023 In the wake of the July CPI data there is a growing perception that inflation is steadily subsiding and that the Fed will not need to increase the funds rate further. We are not so sure. Several factors seem important. First, will the economy slow...
by sslifer | Aug 4, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
August 4, 2023 The economy may finally lose some momentum later this year as student loan debt repayment returns in October and as the recent sharp jump in interest rates should provide at least some further growth moderation later in the fourth quarter and the early...
by sslifer | Jul 28, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
July 28, 2023 GDP climbed 2.4% in the second quarter, 2.0% in the first quarter and 2.6% in the fourth quarter. Clearly, the economy is on a roll. Economists – including those at the Fed — are quickly abandoning their recession forecasts and concluding that...
by sslifer | Jul 21, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
July 21, 2023 After a promising start at the beginning of the year, existing home sales have fallen steadily in recent months to the lowest level in years. On the surface it appears that the housing sector is experiencing serious difficulty. While it is true that...
by sslifer | Jul 14, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
July 14, 2023 Economists continue to expect a recession. Some in the second half of this year. Others, like ourselves, a mild one in the first half of next year. But the stock market is telling a different story. Somewhat remarkably the stock market is within 5%...
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