by sslifer | May 22, 2020 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
May 22, 2020 Modern monetary theory has moved to center stage in the debate about the proper role of monetary policy. Whether you are a strident believer or a ferocious detractor depends largely upon your political persuasion. The left-wing of the Democratic Party...
by sslifer | May 15, 2020 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
May 15, 2020 We are going to see a record-breaking drop in second-quarter GDP. Fiscal stimulus is going to produce an equally astonishing rebound in the third quarter. But this is not the typical recession/recovery scenario. The government caused the recession by...
by sslifer | May 8, 2020 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
May 8, 2020 Given what we know about employment and hours worked, it now seems likely that second quarter GDP will contract at a 60.0% annual rate. The $2.5 trillion in the two already-approved fiscal stimulus packages are designed to get the economy back on track. ...
by sslifer | May 1, 2020 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
May 1, 2020 Measures taken by government officials to slow the spread of the corona virus have put the economy into a policy-induced coma. Second quarter GDP is expected to contract by a record-shattering 20-50%. But $2.5 trillion of fiscal stimulus checks will...
by sslifer | Apr 24, 2020 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 24, 2020 One of the few things we know is that in recent weeks 26 million Americans have lost their job. This guarantees that the second quarter GDP decline will be record-breaking. We currently anticipate a contraction of 35%. It could be bigger. But whether...
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