by sslifer | May 3, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
May 3, 2019 Perhaps the biggest economic surprise of the past year has been the stubbornly low inflation rate. Over the course of the past year the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures deflator (excluding the volatile food and...
by sslifer | Apr 26, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 26, 2019 There has been a lot of chatter lately about a moderate reduction in foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities last year. Frankly, we think this is much ado about nothing. But before exploring foreign holdings of Treasuries, who actually owns U.S....
by sslifer | Apr 19, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 19, 2019 Next Friday, April 26, first quarter GDP growth will be released. Estimates of growth for this quarter have swung dramatically as additional data became available. For example, the widely followed GDPNow estimate produced by the Atlanta Fed started at...
by sslifer | Apr 12, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 12, 2019 The IMF recently reduced its 2019 global GDP growth forecast by 0.2% to 3.3% after slicing it 0.2% in October. Its forecasts receive widespread attention because the IMF has the resources and the skills to examine closely the economies of virtually...
by sslifer | Apr 5, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 5, 2019 The economy experienced a number of damaging shocks in the past six months as the stock market plunged in the fourth quarter followed by the protracted government shutdown. As a result, GDP growth in the fourth quarter slipped to 2.2%. We do not yet...
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