July 2, 2025
The average duration of unemployment fell 0.5 week in June to 25.5 weeks after having risen 1.6 weeks in May. That works out to an average duration of unemployment of six months. It appears that unemployed workers are having a somewhat more difficult time becoming reemployed than they were six months or so ago. Prior to the recession in December 2019 the average duration of employment was 20.7 weeks. It is taking currently unemployed workers a bit longer than normal to get rehired,
Stephen Slifer
NumberNomics
Charleston, SC
Steve, I want to express my appreciation for your weekly letter. You have so much insight into the numbers and their relationship to each other. I look forward to the letter each week and it serves as my primary source of information regarding the direction of our economy. Thank you very much!
Thanks, George. There is a lot going on, especially now with all these expected changes in Fed policy, central banks going in different directions for the first time in five years, and the huge increase in oil production here in the U.S. It implies lots of volatility going forward in stocks, bonds, currencies, and commodities. I try to look at all the moving parts and come up with some sort of a view. It may not always be right, but I like to think it is at least well thought out. In the end, I want to provide all of my readers with something to think about that perhaps they have not heard elsewhere. If I can do that, I feel like I have done my job.
Steve
Thank you so much for your keen observations and simplified explanations. Your continue to help our management team of metals experts understand the impact of the financial gymnastics of the day. Can’t tell you how many times we count on your Friday letter to make sense of the week behind us and keep us optimistic about the road ahead. Thank you again and ongoing.
Thanks Bruce. Nice to hear from you. Things have certainly gotten interesting lately. While I dislike Trump, at the beginning I thought his tax cuts were good for the country and would help not just that year’s GDP growth but longer-term GDP growth as well. That was good policy. But now his trade policy has gotten out of control. He is undoing a lot of the good he did earlier. He has certainly made the markets nervous, but whether the economy suffers as much as everybody seems to expect currently and the Fed eases aggressively remains to be seen.
All the best.
Steve