June 30, 2020
The Case Shiller Index of Home Prices in 20 cities rose 0.9% in April after having risen 1.1% in April. Over the past year home prices have risen 4.0%.
A broader index for the entire U.S. — which would include a large number of smaller cities — is rising at a somewhat faster 4.7% pace.
Home sales took a big hit in March and April as one would expect during the lockdown. But sales came roaring back in May. And with little supply on the market home prices have been rising. We need builders to find enough bodies to significantly boost the pace of production in the months ahead or else home prices will continue to climb.
As it stands, we expect Q2 GDP to decline by 50.0%. However, the Federal government has passed stimulus bills of $2.0 trillion followed by a second package of $0.5 billion. Those checks are now in the hands of consumers. As a result As a result, we expect Q3 GDP growth of 51% and Q4 GDP growth of 7.0%.
Stephen Slifer
NumberNomics
Charleston, SC
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