by sslifer | Sep 29, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
September 29, 2023 When inflation first started to rise in mid-2020 the Federal Reserve told us that we did not need to worry because it was “temporary” and attributable to supply constraints that led to notably higher — but temporary — increases in...
by sslifer | Sep 22, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
September 22, 2023 This past week the Federal Reserve left the funds rate unchanged at 5.5%, which is exactly what was expected. While the Fed may not have raised the funds rate, the bond market took matters into its own hands and significantly raised every other...
by sslifer | Sep 15, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
September 15, 2023 As data continue to flow in, third quarter GDP growth seems likely to be a solid 3.5%. But in October as student loan borrowers resume payments on their debt the pace of consumer spending is almost certain to slow. At the same time workers at the...
by sslifer | Sep 12, 2023 | Miscellaneous, NumberNomics Notes
September 12, 2023 Economists like to keep an eye on the amount of leverage amongst corporations. When corporations take on huge amounts of debt in relation to their net worth, any economic downturn will be much more severe than it would otherwise be as corporations...
by sslifer | Sep 12, 2023 | Miscellaneous, NumberNomics Notes
September 12, 2023 Corporate cash holdings in the first half of 2020 as the government quarantine basically caused the economy to stop dead in its tracks. Firms needed to raise money wherever they could to keep them going until such time as the virus eased its grip...
by sslifer | Aug 25, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
August 25, 2023 How high must the funds rate go before the Fed says it is done tightening? When might the Fed begin to lower the funds rate? Fed Chair Powell refuses to answer either of those questions for two good reasons. First, the Fed never wants to be locked...
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