by sslifer | May 4, 2018 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
May 4, 2018 The unemployment rate declined 0.2% in April to 3.9%. That is the lowest it has been since December 2000. Economists generally believe that the full employment threshold – the rate at which everyone who wants a job has one – is about 4.5%. Surely, the...
by sslifer | Apr 27, 2018 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 27, 2018 There are two pieces for you to read this week. The market has begun to worry about a 3.0% rate on the 10-year note. It has also noticed the recent sharp run-up in gasoline prices. It worries about a pickup in the rate of inflation which could become...
by sslifer | Apr 27, 2018 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 27, 2017 The Fed is raising short-term interest rates. A rising inflation rate is boosting bond yields. The stock market is sinking. Oh, my. Surely, the end of the expansion must be in sight. Wrong! Somehow, we seem to have forgotten about the economic...
by sslifer | Apr 27, 2018 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 25, 2018 Home prices have suddenly begun to surge. Ditto for oil prices. Uh-oh! Is this a sign that the inflation rate is poised to accelerate? Slightly perhaps, but we are not yet ready to sound an alarm. Here’s why. The Case-Shiller Index of home prices...
by sslifer | Apr 20, 2018 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 20, 2018 The IMF recently updated its global economic forecast which included a review of the U.S. situation. In the past six months it has boosted its estimate of U.S. GDP growth for 2018 and 2019 by 0.6% and 0.8%, respectively, to 2.9% and 2.7%. The upward...
by sslifer | Apr 13, 2018 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 13, 2018 The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) this week completed its annual 10-year projection of budget deficits and federal debt outstanding for 2018-2028. This exercise is typically completed in January but was released later than normal this year...
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