Fed Confusion

December 20, 2022 Recent Fed  policy has been confusing to say the least.   In September the focus was on the unemployment rate and the Fed eased aggressively.  Two months later the focus shifted back to inflation and the Fed seemed nervous.  The Fed basically told us...

The Fed in the Spotlight

December 13, 2024 The Federal Reserve will be the focus of attention this week.  It is all but a foregone conclusion that it will lower the funds rate by 0.25% to 4.25-4.5%. It told us that is what it intends to do.  The Fed is trying to reduce the funds rate to a...

The Year Ahead – 2025

December 6, 2024 The 2025 outlook seems particularly bright characterized by 3.0% GDP growth, the unemployment rate steady at the 4.0% mark, additional slowing in the core inflation rate to 2.3% , and a further reduction in the funds rate from 4.75% today to 3.75% by...

Look on the Bright Side

November 22, 2024 Every economist has attempted to predict the impact on economic growth and inflation from the long list of policies Trump is supporting.  Economic forecasting is challenging enough every  year when dealing with the usual variables — consumer...