The Miracle of Revisions

September 27, 2024 This past week we got the annual benchmark revisions to GDP and the income data. GDP growth did not change appreciably, but income growth for the past year doubled from what had been reported previously. That changes the outlook. Prior to the...

Too Much, Too Soon?

September 20, 2023 The financial press has been filled with analysis (and over analysis) of the Fed’s decision to the cut federal funds rate by 0.5% to 4.75-5.0%. Some economic experts suggest that the economy must be far weaker than the Fed is suggesting publicly to...

The Consumer Keeps Spending

September 13, 2024 One of the mysteries of the current expansion has been the contrast between consumer confidence – which is terrible – and consumer spending – which is not.  All of the various consumer confidence surveys are close to the low point reached in the...

The Fed Joins the Party

September 6, 2024 The employment report for August was the icing on the cake.  The labor market continues to cool.  The Fed is going to lower the funds rate at its FOMC gathering on September 18.  It will most likely be a 0.25% cut to the 5.0-5.25% range.  But some...