November 26, 2024
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The Conference Board reported that consumer confidence rose 2.1 points in November to 111.7 after jumping 10,4 points in October and falling 6.4 points in September.
Chief Economist at the Conference Board, Dana Peterson, said “Consumer confidence continued to improve in November and reached the top of the range that has prevailed over the past two years. November’s increase was mainly driven by more positive consumer assessments of the present situation, particularly regarding the labor market. Compared to October, consumers were also substantially more optimistic about future job availability, which reached its highest level in almost three years. Meanwhile, consumers’ expectations about future business conditions were unchanged and they were slightly less positive about future income.”
Given the slightly higher level of consumer confidence we envision moderate economic growth in the months ahead. The economy keeps cranking out new jobs although the pace of job creation is slowing down a bit. With the funds rate at 4.8% and the core CPI at 3.3% the real funds rate is +1.5% which is higher than the 0.8% real funds rate that the Fed believes is “neutral”.
Given the magnitude of the earlier declines in confidence one might have expected a sharp pullback in consumer spending. But that has not happened. Instead, real consumer spending has risen 3.1% in the past year and at a 3.8% pace in the most recent 3-month period.. Consumers had been relying heavily on credit card borrowing to sustain their peace of spending. But right now with real disposable income rising 3.1% and real spending rising 3.1%, the consumer can continue to spend at the current pace forever.. We expect GDP to increase 2.5% in the fourth quarter and grow at roughly that same pace in 2025.
The Fed has begun its long-awaited easing process. The current 4.8% funds rate should decline to 4.5% by the end of this year and to 3.5% by the end of 2025. That should reduce mortgage rates from 6.8% currently to 5.8% by the end of 2025. All of that should tend to boost the pace of economic activity.
Confidence data reported by the Conference Board are roughly matched by the University of Michigan’s series on consumer sentiment. As shown in the chart below, trends in the two series are identical but there can be month-to-month deviations.
Stephen Slifer
NumberNomics
Charleston, SC
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