October 25, 2024
Durable goods orders fell 0.8% in September after having declined 0.8% in August. The August and September declines were both attributable to the very volatile transportation sector, non-defense aircraft in particular. Durable goods orders have fallen 2.1% in the past year.
Much of the change in durables is frequently in the transportation sector — airplanes, cars, and trucks. In September transportation orders declined 3.1% after falling 3.4% in August. As a result, non-transportation orders rose 0.4% in September after climbing 0.6% in August.. The non-transportation sector has risen 1.1% in the past year.
The orders component of the Purchasing Managers Index had been hovering slightly below the breakeven level of 50.0 for a long time which suggests that durable goods orders are likely to be sluggish in the months ahead.
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GDP grew 2.8% in the third quarter which we expect to be followed by 2.5% GDP growth in the fourth quarter.
Stephen Slifer
NumberNomics
Charleston, SC
Stephen,
It fascinates me that in the middle of one of the most gummed up Congress in decades which does not seem to get much of anything done one way or the other, business continues to surge forward beyond expectations. Maybe we are better off with a government that does less instead of more. All we do have to be concerned about is how much more of the wealth of our country gets held in the hands of the “1%” while much of the “99%”, especially those in the lower segments of that large group live in a less than middle class environment. Maybe you have answers to that dilemma.
…Darrel
Dividing new orders by PPI for capital goods and the durables build in orders has been flat. I think this leaves upside for the year ahead. But only a guess on that.
I don’t typically look at the thing you mentioned, but it makes sense to me.