April 24, 2025
Durable goods orders rose 9.2% in March after having risen 0.9% in February. . Durable goods orders have risen 11.9% in the past year. But the big increase in March almost entirely reflected a jump in civilian aircraft orders.
Much of the change in durables is frequently in the transportation sector — airplanes, cars, and trucks. In March transportation orders jumped a whopping 27.0% as civilian aircraft orders surged, after having risen by 1.2% in February. As a result, non-transportation orders were unchanged in March after having risen 0.7% in February. The non-transportation sector has risen 2.2% in the past year. They are climbing slowly but steadily.
The orders component of the Purchasing Managers Index climbed for five months in a row before falling sharply in February and March. The spreading imposition of tariffs is having a retarding effect on the demand for goods.
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We expect GDP growth of 0.5% in the first quarter and 2.0% GDP growth for 2025..
Stephen Slifer
NumberNomics
Charleston, SC
Stephen,
It fascinates me that in the middle of one of the most gummed up Congress in decades which does not seem to get much of anything done one way or the other, business continues to surge forward beyond expectations. Maybe we are better off with a government that does less instead of more. All we do have to be concerned about is how much more of the wealth of our country gets held in the hands of the “1%” while much of the “99%”, especially those in the lower segments of that large group live in a less than middle class environment. Maybe you have answers to that dilemma.
…Darrel
Dividing new orders by PPI for capital goods and the durables build in orders has been flat. I think this leaves upside for the year ahead. But only a guess on that.
I don’t typically look at the thing you mentioned, but it makes sense to me.