April 16, 2025
Industrial production for April was unchanged after having fallen 0.3 in March. In the past year industrial production has risen 1.5%.
Breaking industrial production down into its three basic categories — manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Manufacturing production declined 0.4% in April after having risen 0.4% in March. In the past year manufacturing output has risen 1.2%.
Motor vehicle sector production declined 1.9% in April after having risen 1.4% in March. In the past year it has declined 3.9%. This category is very volatile on a month-to-month basis. Some of the increase the past couple of months represents a step up in production in an effort to avoid tariffs.
Excluding the motor vehicle sector, manufacturing output declined 0.3% in April after having risen 0.3% in March. In the past year it has risen 1.6%. The imposition of tariffs is providing a lift to the domestic manufacturing sector.
High tech production rose 1.4% in April after declining 1.0% in March. High tech production has risen 8.5% in the past year. We would suggest that if firms are unable to find an adequate supply of workers, they will turn to technology in an effort to boost production and satisfy the demand for their products. At the same time firms are all experimenting with AI in an effort to figure out how it might help them boost productivity. Thus, we expect high tech production to continue to climb rapidly in the months ahead.
Mining (14%) output declined 0.3% in April after climbing 1.1% in March. Mining has risen 0.7% in the past year.
Utilities output gained 3.3% in April after having fallen 6.2% in March. Over the past year utility output has risen 4.3%. This component is extremely volatile from month-to-month as the weather fluctuates.
Capacity utilization in the manufacturing sector declined 0.4% in April to 76.8% after having risen 0.2% in March . The utilization rate is slightly below the 77.4% level that is generally regarded as effective full capacity utilization.
Stephen Slifer
NumberNomics
Charleston, SC
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