November 6, 2026
In any given month employers can boost output by either additional hiring workers or by lengthening the number of hours that their employees work. Payroll employment rose by 165 thousand in October. At the same time the nonfarm workweek was unchanged at 34.4 hours. Prior to the recession the nonfarm workweek was averaging 34.4 hours so it is exactly where it was six years ago.
The change in employment and hours worked are reflected in the aggregate hours index which rose 0.1% in October to 117.4 after climbing 0.1% in September. This index is expected to increase 1.4% in the fourth quarter which when combined with a projected 1.4% in productivity should produce GDP growth in the fourth quarter of about 2.8%.
The factory workweek was unchanged in October at 40.5 hours after having declined 0.1 hour in September The manufacturing sector has turned upwards in recent months after more than a year of being relatively unchanged.
Overtime hours rose 0.1 hour in October to 3.1 hours after having declined 0.1 hour in September Manufacturers typically work existing employees longer hours for a while prior to boosting the pace of hiring. The manufacturing sector seems to be gathering momentum.
Stephen Slifer
NumberNomics
Charleston, SC
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