November 20, 2025
In any given month employers can boost output by either additional hiring workers or by lengthening the number of hours that their employees work. Payroll employment climbed by 119 thousand in September. The nonfarm workweek was unchanged in September at 34.2 hours after having fallen 0.1 hour in August. Prior to the recession the nonfarm workweek was averaging 34.4 hours so it is shorter than it was five years ago.
The change in employment and hours worked are reflected in the aggregate hours index which rose 0.1% in September to 116.8 after declining 0.3% in August.. The aggregate hours index was unchanged in the third quarter. Given a likely increase in productivity of about 3.3% we currently expect GDP growth of about 3.3% in the third quarter.
The factory workweek fell 0.1 hour in September to 39.9 hours after having fallen 0.2 hour in August. The manufacturing sector has been fairly steady in recent months.
Overtime hours were unchanged in September at 2.9 hours which is essentially where it has been for the past eight months..
Stephen Slifer
NumberNomics
Charleston, SC
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